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Author: Dimitris Korobilis Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This article extends the current literature which questions the stability of the monetary transmission mechanism, by proposing a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The VAR coefficients and error covariances may change gradually in every period or be subject to abrupt breaks. The model is applied to 143 post-World War II quarterly variables fully describing the US economy. I show that both endogenous and exogenous shocks to the US economy resulted in the high inflation volatility during the 1970s and early 1980s. The time-varying factor augmented VAR produces impulse responses of inflation which significantly reduce the price puzzle. Impulse responses of other indicators of the economy show that the most notable changes in the transmission of unanticipated monetary policy shocks occurred for gross domestic product, investment, exchange rates and money.
Author: Dimitris Korobilis Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This article extends the current literature which questions the stability of the monetary transmission mechanism, by proposing a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. The VAR coefficients and error covariances may change gradually in every period or be subject to abrupt breaks. The model is applied to 143 post-World War II quarterly variables fully describing the US economy. I show that both endogenous and exogenous shocks to the US economy resulted in the high inflation volatility during the 1970s and early 1980s. The time-varying factor augmented VAR produces impulse responses of inflation which significantly reduce the price puzzle. Impulse responses of other indicators of the economy show that the most notable changes in the transmission of unanticipated monetary policy shocks occurred for gross domestic product, investment, exchange rates and money.
Author: Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475525826 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 19
Book Description
The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.
Author: Sandra Eickmeier Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of US variables from 1972 to 2007, the results indicate some changes in the factor dynamics, and more marked variation in the factors' shock volatility and their loading parameters. Forecasts from the time-varying FAVAR are more accurate than those from a constant parameter FAVAR for most variables and horizons when computed insample, for some variables in pseudo real time, mostly financial indicators. Finally, we use the time-varying FAVAR to assess how monetary transmission to the economy has changed. We find substantial time variation in the volatility of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long-term interest rates to an equally-sized monetary policy shock has decreased since the early-1980s.
Author: Dawit Legesse Senbet Publisher: ISBN: Category : Monetary policy Languages : en Pages : 362
Book Description
This dissertation employs factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models to investigate the impact, transmission mechanism and reaction function of monetary policy. The recent development of augmenting dynamic factor analysis with the vector autoregressive (VAR) models, pioneered by Bernanke et al. (2005), has led to advances in monetary policy analysis. The new approach bases measurements of monetary policy on large data sets that approximate the true information set of policymakers. This is in contrast to low dimensional VAR models. The FAVAR model summarizes information from large data set by a few factors that are incorporated into VAR models. The first essay investigates the impact of monetary policy on a wide range of macroeconomic indicators for the United States, Canada, the U.K., Japan and France using FAVAR models. I also examine the influence of United States' monetary policy on the other countries in the sample. This essay incorporates between 70 and 80 monthly macro variables for each country. The results show that, first, the FAVAR model eliminates the "price puzzle" response for all countries. Second, monetary policy has plausible impacts on a wide range of economic variables. Third, there is evidence of United States' monetary policy influence on Canada, the U.K. and Japan. In the second essay, I investigate the channels of monetary policy transmission in the United States using the FAVAR models. This essay builds on the debates on whether monetary policy works through the credit channel, in addition to the traditional interest rate channel. I include 154 United States' monthly macro variables. The findings support the existence of the credit channel in the United States. The third essay builds on the seminal work of Taylor (1993) to study the reaction functions of monetary policymakers in the United States, Canada, the U.K. and Japan. I include monthly data on 80 to 150 macro variables in the FAVAR model to investigate the policy reaction functions. The findings show that monetary policymakers react to many variables including capacity utilization rates, unemployment rates, monetary aggregates, exchange rates, and long-term interest rates in addition to the inflation and the output gaps.
Author: Michael P. Clements Publisher: OUP USA ISBN: 0195398645 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 732
Book Description
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Author: Gary Koop Publisher: Now Publishers Inc ISBN: 160198362X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 104
Book Description
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Author: Tuan Anh Phan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This thesis presents four self-contained empirical research papers on monetary policy and monetary transmission using vector autoregression (VAR), structural VAR (SVAR), and Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) models. The first two papers compare aspects of monetary policy and transmission in selected developed countries: Australia, the US, and the Euro area (Chapter 3); and Australia, the US, UK, and Canada (Chapter 4). The last two papers (Chapters 5 and 6) explore monetary policy and effects of monetary policy on inflation in Vietnam - a transition developing country. The empirical results indicate that the investment channel of monetary policy transmission plays a more important role than the consumption channel in Australia. Meanwhile the investment channel and the consumption channel make similar contributions to the overall transmission of monetary policy in the Euro area and the US. The difference between Australia and the Euro area appears to come from differences in housing investment responses, whereas Australia differs from the US mainly because it has a lower share of household consumption in total demand. Results from TVP-VAR models suggest that there were comovements in the monetary policy reactions to unemployment across countries before the recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The policy rate seems to react more strongly to unemployment changes in more recent years, especially in the US and UK. Monetary policy responses to inflation/deflation are observed to be divided into two groups, with the responses in the US and UK showing a different pattern to the responses in Canada and Australia. Monetary policy seems to react most aggressively against inflation/deflation in the US. The effects of monetary policy shocks on unemployment and inflation are similar across countries, and seem to have weakened over time. Results also suggest that monetary policy transmission to inflation in a transition country like Vietnam appears to work in a similar way to as in developed countries. The impulse response functions of inflation to shocks in monetary policy are plausible and robust across the VAR and SVAR models. The policy interest rate plays an important role in affecting inflation. For the case of Vietnam as a small, open economy, shocks to output and prices in trading partners also appear to have strong effects on domestic inflation. Allowing for the time-varying nature of the parameters and variance/covariance matrices, the results suggest that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) appears to have been steadily using monetary policy tools to contain inflation. TVP-VAR results also confirm that monetary policy in Vietnam appears to lead to reasonable inflation responses. The evidence therefore supports the argument that Vietnam's monetary policy might be more effective than expected.
Author: Mauro Bernardi Publisher: MDPI ISBN: 3039437852 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 146
Book Description
Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.
Author: Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475553498 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 59
Book Description
Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
Author: Dimitris Korobilis
Author: Dimitris Korobilis
Author: Dimitris Korobilis
Author: Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra
Author: Sandra Eickmeier
Author: Dawit Legesse Senbet
Author: Michael P. Clements
Author: Gary Koop
Author: Tuan Anh Phan
Author: Mauro Bernardi
Author: Mr.Hamid Reza Davoodi