The Engine of Growth Or Its Handmaiden? PDF Download

Author: Hedi Ben Haddad
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
We adopt a Panel Threshold Autoregressive (PTAR) model to investigate the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in six Middle East and North Africa countries from 1976 to 2005. Two regimes are distinguished according to the threshold variable export-import ratio. Then, the non-linear Granger-causality tests under each regime are applied in the system including GDP, exports and imports. The results reveal that there is bi-directional causality between exports and growth under both regimes in the case of Algeria. The ELG hypothesis is supported at least under one regime in the cases of Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. In the cases of Morocco and Syria, we find no causality between exports and growth under any of the two regimes.

Author: Raymond Glenn Riezman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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Author: Jordan Shan
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781875338931
Category : China
Languages : en
Pages : 32

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Author: Kin Chung Woon
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Export marketing
Languages : en
Pages : 240

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Author: Steven Durlauf
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642612113
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204

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Book Description
One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports -either because doing so directly influences development via encouraging production of goods for export, or because export promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the so-called "two-gap" hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country com parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen tially dynamic one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow, 1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led growth using Granger causality tests.

Author: Dierk Herzer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Chile
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Book Description
This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on productivity growth.

Author: Jie Yang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description
The stylized fact that strong economic growth is usually accompanied with strong export growth leads many people to conclude that the export sector is the main driving force behind those episodes. The model in this paper, however, shows that the non-tradable sector may also generate high economic growth together with high export growth. Evidence shows that out of 71 "so-called" export-led growth episodes, only 37 of them are consistent with the "exports driving growth" hypothesis. Most of the remaining episodes (24 cases) experienced significant real exchange rate depreciation and are more likely to be characterized by "growth driving exports".

Author: Dalia Marin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometric models
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Author: Judith A. Giles
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
The economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centers on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We contribute to this literature in two ways. First, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than one hundred and fifty export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used to empirically examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings. The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies which focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not typically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications--Oxley's 1993 study for Portugal and Henriques and Sadorsky's 1996 analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.

Author: Emilio J. Medina-Smith
Publisher: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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Book Description
The export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) postulates that export growth is one of the determinants of economic growth. This study tests the hypothesis by examining the economy of Costa Rica, using data going back to 1950. It found that although exports had a positive effect on growth, their impact was relatively. It thus challenges some of the empirical literature on ELGH and expresses doubts about using exports as a comprehensive development strategy.