Author: Elwyn ReesPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Aspects of Decision Making Based on Subjective Assessment of Probability
Author: Elwyn ReesAspects of Decision Making Based on Subjective Assessments of Probability
Author: Elwyn ReesDecision Making and Change in Human Affairs
Author: H. JungermannPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401012768
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 525
Book Description
It is only just recently that people have the tools to judge how well they are doing when making decisions. These tools were conceptualized in the seventeenth century. Since then many people have worked to sharpen the concepts, and to explore how these can be applied further. The problems of decision-making and the theory developed correspondingly have drawn the interest of mathematicians, psychologists, statisticians, economists, philosophers, organizational experts, sociologists, not only for their general relevance, but also for a more intrinsic fascination. There are quite a few institutionalized activities to disseminate results and stimulate research in decision-making. For about a decade now a European organizational structure, centered mainly around the psy chological interest in decision-making. There have been conferences in Hamburg, Amsterdam, Uxbridge, Rome and Darmstadt. Conference papers have been partly published+. The organization has thus stabilized, and its re latively long history makes it interesting to see what kind of developments occurred, within the area of interest.
Subjective Probability
Author: George WrightPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 608
Book Description
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Information Analysis of Subjective Probabilities in a Sequential Decision-making Task
Author: Robert Allen DassingerPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 164
Book Description
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author: Charles A. HollowayPublisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 554
Book Description
Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.
Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory
Author: Silvia BacciPublisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1351621386
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 217
Book Description
Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory: Utility Theory and Causal Analysis provides the theoretical background to approach decision theory from a statistical perspective. It covers both traditional approaches, in terms of value theory and expected utility theory, and recent developments, in terms of causal inference. The book is specifically designed to appeal to students and researchers that intend to acquire a knowledge of statistical science based on decision theory. Features Covers approaches for making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty Illustrates expected utility theory and its extensions Describes approaches to elicit the utility function Reviews classical and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference based on decision theory Discusses the role of causal analysis in statistical decision theory
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment
Author: Paul GoodwinPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118740734
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 496
Book Description
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is unique in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This latest edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Experts in Uncertainty
Author: Roger M. CookePublisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0195362373
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 334
Book Description
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
The Measurement of Subjective Probability
Author: Edward J. R. ElliottPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009401300
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 105
Book Description
Beliefs come in degrees, and we often represent those degrees with numbers. We might say, for example, that we are 90% confident in the truth of some scientific hypothesis, or only 30% confident in the success of some risky endeavour. But what do these numbers mean? What, in other words, is the underlying psychological reality to which the numbers correspond? And what constitutes a meaningful difference between numerically distinct representations of belief? In this Element, we discuss the main approaches to the measurement of belief. These fall into two broad categories-epistemic and decision-theoretic-with divergent foundations in the theory of measurement. Epistemic approaches explain the measurement of belief by appeal to relations between belief states themselves, whereas decision-theoretic approaches appeal to relations between beliefs and desires in the production of choice and preferences.