Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China? PDF Download

Author: Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210811
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33

View

Book Description
Sharp increase in house prices combined with the extraordinary Chinese lending growth during 2009 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. We find that, for China as a whole, the current levels of house prices do not seem significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. However, there are signs of overvaluation in some cities’ mass-market and luxury segments. Unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, prices have tended to correct frequently in China.Given persistently low real interest rates, lack of alternative investment and mortgage-to-GDP trend, rapid property price growth in China has, and will continue to have,a structural driver.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210803
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21

View

Book Description
Sharp increase in house prices in Hong Kong SAR in 2009-2010 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. According to our measure of price deviation from fundamentals, which should be taken as an early warning indicator of market exuberance, the current level of house prices in Hong Kong SAR does not seem to be significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. Moreover, unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, deviation from fundamentals has not been persistent in Hong Kong.Going forward, low interest rate and improving growth prospects, as well as a tight supply, particularly in the mass market, means that house price growth will continue to be strong.This is the period in which vulnerability may be accumulating, and tight prudential standards and fiscal measures will be required to tame price inflation.

Author: Richard Koss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484348559
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33

View

Book Description
The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022639574X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 517

View

Book Description
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.

Author: Mr.Anoop Singh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484321936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 292

View

Book Description
China's current account surplus has declined to around one-quarter the peak reached before the global financial crisis. While this is a major reduction in China's external imbalance, it has not been accompanied by a decisive shift toward consumption-based growth. Instead, the compression in its external surplus has been accomplished through increasing fixed investment so that it is now an even higher share of China's national economy. This increasing reliance on fixed investment as the main driver of China's growth raises questions about the durability of the compression in the external surplus and the sustainability of the current growth model that has had unprecedented success in lifting about 500 million people out of poverty over the last three decades. This volume examines various aspects of the rebalancing process underway in China, highlighting policy lessons for achieving stable, sustainable, and inclusive growth.

Author: Zan Yang
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642540449
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 141

View

Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of housing affordability under the economic reforms and social transformations in urban China. It also offers an overall review of the current government measures on the housing market and affordable housing policies in China. By introducing a dynamic affordability approach and residual income approach, the book allows us to capture the size of the affordability gap more accurately, to better identify policy targets, and to assess the effectiveness of current public policy. The unique database on urban household surveys and regional information on affordable housing projects serve to strengthen the analysis. The book offers theoretical and empirical insights for in-depth affordability studies and helps readers to understand the social impacts of market reforms and the role of government on the Chinese housing market.

Author: Bertrand Renaud
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119073642
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 352

View

Book Description
This book is the first to evaluate the organisation, behaviour and performance of six major East Asian real estate markets. It offers a unique analysis of the growth and transformation of the real estate sector across East Asia. The authors examine the interactions between volatility in the sector and the overall stability of the economy, in particular during the Asia financial crisis of 1997-98, and the global financial crisis of 2008-09. draws on the best available theoretical and empirical literature applies analytic tools in the context of East Asian institutions and policies helps understand factors affecting resilience and stability in East Asian real estate markets.

Author: Franklin Allen
Publisher: Pearson Prentice Hall
ISBN: 0137011601
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 214

View

Book Description
Explains the financial history leading to the mortgage meltdown and assesses today's housing finance systems in the United States and abroad.

Author: Miao Han
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137563087
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 293

View

Book Description
The respective legal frameworks that control central banks are shaped by whether they are market oriented or government controlled. However such stark distinction between these two categories has been challenged in view of the varying styles of crisis management demonstrated by different central banks during the crisis. This book uses comparative analysis to investigate how the global financial crisis challenged the role played by central banks in maintaining financial stability. Focusing on four central banks including the US Federal Reserve System, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China, it illustrates the similarities between the banks prior to the crisis, and their similar policy responses in the wake of the crisis. It demonstrates how each operated with varying levels of independence while performing very differently and facing different tasks. The book identifies some central explanatory variables for this behavior, addressing the mismatch of similar risk management solutions and varying outcomes. Central Bank Regulation and The Financial Crisis: A Comparative Analysis explores the legal challenges within central bank regulation presented by the global financial crisis. It emphasizes the importance of, and the limitations involved in, legal order and argue that in spite of integration and globalization, significant differences exist in central banks' approaches to risk management and financial stability.

Author: Marzenna Anna Weresa
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3319020722
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 493

View

Book Description
This work focuses on researching and establishing the importance of human capital and innovation as determinants of competitive advantages in international trade—in the context of rapidly evolving technological advancement, globalization, and economic integration. The processes that accompany the shift from industrial economics to a knowledge-based economy are currently the object of interest of both scientists, politicians, investors and entrepreneurs. In many countries, the traditional sources of socioeconomic development, such as low labor costs, availability of inexpensive raw materials, and favorable geographic location are waning. These economies are searching for new sources of competitive advantage that will allow for maintaining growth, among other things by boosting participation in international trade. The book explores non-traditional drivers of competitiveness in both theory and practice. First, chapters 1 through 4 present theoretical and methodological aspects of the relationships among international trade, human capital and innovation. Here the authors address the controversy associated with the concept of competitiveness itself and its measurement, while paying special attention to the political development of comparative advantages related to international trade. The second part of the monograph, chapters 5 through 8, is of empirical nature. This section contains case studies of selected countries that represent models of various national innovation systems. Finally, the theoretical and practical aspects are integrated, allowing policymakers and financial and business leaders to consider how their decisions can influence their countries’ competitive positions through their investments in innovation and human capital.