Are Asian Business Cycles Different? PDF Download

Author: Yongseung Jung
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56

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Book Description
This paper investigates business cycles in Asia. Business cycles in developing small, open countries are different from those in developed small countries. Most interesting characteristics in developing countries are excessive consumption volatilities and strong countercyclical net export. Asia and Latin American developing countries share these characteristics. However, there are also differences in business cycles in both regions. We find that Asia shows less excessive consumption expenditure volatility to output than Latin American countries, and strong countercyclical net exports. More interestingly, the durable consumption is negatively related with net export in Asia (Korea), while Latin America (Chile) shows positive correlation. Moreover durable consumption shows a negative relationship with export and import while durable consumption in Latin America has positive relationship with export and import. We believe that there exist different transmission mechanisms in Latin America and Asia that connect consumption, net exports and export or import. We find that positive terms of trade shock increase the real GDP significantly in the short run for Latin America, but have no significant effects for East Asia. However, response of net exports to the terms of trade shocks is stronger and more persistent in Asia than in Latin America. This paper also present an analytic model that could explain the durable goods business cycles in Asia.The model can explain durable business cycles in Asia (Korea) which generate strong procyclical durable consumption by the export-income channel with market laddering.

Author: Yongseung Jung
Publisher:
ISBN: 9788932240268
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Author: Yongseung Jung
Publisher: KIEP
ISBN: 9788932242279
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Book Description

Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451927312
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.

Author: Sunghyun Henry Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
The paper documents the extent of similarities and differences of business cycle characteristics of the Asian countries and compares the cyclical regularities in this region with those of the G-7 countries. The Asian economies are generally more volatile than the G-7 countries, but the amplitude of economic fluctuations in the Asian countries tends to decrease over time. Comovement and persistence properties of business cycles in the Asian countries are very similar to those of the G-7 economies. The authors find that while the patterns of business cycle fluctuations in the main macroeconomic aggregates display important similarities, the behavior of fiscal and monetary policy variables exhibits significant differences across the Asian countries. Moreover, there is a high degree of comovement between the individual country business cycles and different measures of the Asian business cycle, indicating that there is a regional business cycle specific to the Asian countries.

Author: Ivan Tselichtchev
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118580621
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 392

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Book Description
Asia was probably the biggest economic sensation of the post-war decades. The breathtaking success of Japan was followed by a remarkable rise of "four tigers", then ASEAN founder states and then China. The Asian miracle became a commonly accepted definition of this success. In the late 1970s and especially 80s it became clear that the balance of power in the world had changed. Politicians, businessmen, scholars began to talk about "the new Asia Pacific age" and Asian economic model, different from and, maybe, even superior to Western capitalism. However, in 1997-98 the Asian economic crisis came and made the region a sick man. Six years before that Japan, the regional powerhouse entered more than a decade-long period of stagnation. The miracle was over. However, the crisis was overcome within a surprisingly short period of time. Naturally, the question arises: What now? What is going on in the region after the miracle and after the crisis? What is today's face of Asian capitalism and how should we view its performance? Readers interested in regional developments will find a lot of literature about miracle decades and crisis years. However, few analysts have addressed the challenging questions addressed in this book. The authors vividly show that Asian capitalism is undergoing a radical structural transformation. These changes are directly affecting its key institutions: governments, companies, labor relations, etc. As a result Asian economic systems are becoming much closer to the Western-style, especially Anglo-Saxon capitalism, though the region retains some important specific features, especially regarding business culture. This book is a must for business people worldwide, for all those who study the region in colleges and business schools, for people engaged in various international activities and, finally, for all those who want learn more about our world at the dawn of the new century.

Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451870019
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51

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Book Description
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author: Soyoung Kim
Publisher: 대외경제정책연구원
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 80

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Author: Selim Elekdag
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475588682
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27

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Book Description
This paper examines how Asian financial linkages with systemic economies have changed over time. After developing a factor model, it estimates Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies, and then seeks to uncover their key determinants, which include trade and financial linkages, as well as policies. In line with Asia’s growing role in the global economy—including through deeper financial integration—regional financial markets have become more sensitive to systemic economies. Asian financial sensitivities to systemic economies exhibit cyclical fluctuations, and reached historically high levels during the latest global financial crisis of 2008–09. While macroeconomic policy frameworks have helped Asian economies cope well with market turbulence, they cannot completely insulate Asian financial markets against major global financial shocks.