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Author: Dale W. R. Rosenthal Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
In the recent financial crisis, improperly modeled default correlations caused multi-billion-dollar losses. We propose parsimonious statistical approximations for correlated defaults which follow from an intensity-based risk-factor model and allow consistent parameter estimation, even if another default model is used. The parameters imply an approximating portfolio of independent, identical-credit loans and jointly characterize the default-relative diversification and average credit quality. The approach improves upon similar methods by allowing for fatter tails as well as loans differing in size and credit quality. Some guidance is also given on structuring CDOs to have credit-ratings that are robust to crises. An example shows how to estimate the approximating portfolio.
Author: Dale W. R. Rosenthal Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
In the recent financial crisis, improperly modeled default correlations caused multi-billion-dollar losses. We propose parsimonious statistical approximations for correlated defaults which follow from an intensity-based risk-factor model and allow consistent parameter estimation, even if another default model is used. The parameters imply an approximating portfolio of independent, identical-credit loans and jointly characterize the default-relative diversification and average credit quality. The approach improves upon similar methods by allowing for fatter tails as well as loans differing in size and credit quality. Some guidance is also given on structuring CDOs to have credit-ratings that are robust to crises. An example shows how to estimate the approximating portfolio.
Author: Yue Kuen Kwok Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319741012 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 134
Book Description
This book summarizes recent advances in applying saddlepoint approximation methods to financial engineering. It addresses pricing exotic financial derivatives and calculating risk contributions to Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in credit portfolios under various default correlation models. These standard problems involve the computation of tail probabilities and tail expectations of the corresponding underlying state variables. The text offers in a single source most of the saddlepoint approximation results in financial engineering, with different sets of ready-to-use approximation formulas. Much of this material may otherwise only be found in original research publications. The exposition and style are made rigorous by providing formal proofs of most of the results. Starting with a presentation of the derivation of a variety of saddlepoint approximation formulas in different contexts, this book will help new researchers to learn the fine technicalities of the topic. It will also be valuable to quantitative analysts in financial institutions who strive for effective valuation of prices of exotic financial derivatives and risk positions of portfolios of risky instruments.
Author: Jiri Witzany Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
The paper analyzes a two-factor credit risk model allowing to capture default and recovery rate variation, their mutual correlation, and dependence on various explanatory variables. At the same time, it allows computing analytically the unexpected credit loss. We propose and empirically implement estimation of the model based on aggregate and exposure level Moody's default and recovery data. The results confirm existence of significantly positive default and recovery rate correlation. We empirically compare the unexpected loss estimates based on the reduced two-factor model with Monte Carlo simulation results, and with the current regulatory formula outputs. The results show a very good performance of the proposed analytical formula which could feasibly replace the current regulatory formula.
Author: Alexander Lipton Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9812709495 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
The recent growth of credit derivatives has been explosive. The global credit derivatives market grew in notional value from $1 trillion to $20 trillion from 2000 to 2006. However, understanding the true nature of these instruments still poses both theoretical and practical challenges. For a long time now, the framework of Gaussian copulas parameterized by correlation, and more recently base correlation, has provided an adequate, if unintuitive, description of the market. However, the increased liquidity in credit indices and index tranches, as well as the proliferation of exotic instruments such as forward starting tranches, options on tranches, leveraged super senior tranches, and the like, have made it imperative to come up with models that describe market reality better.This book, originally and concurrently published in the International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Vol. 10, No. 4, 2007, agrees that base correlation has outlived its usefulness; opinions of how to replace it, however, are divided. Both the top-down and bottom-up approaches for describing the dynamics of credit baskets are presented, and pro and contra arguments are put forward. Readers will decide which direction is the most promising one at the moment. However, it is hoped that, in the near future, models that transcend base correlation will be proposed and accepted by the market.
Author: Masahiko Egami Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 25
Book Description
This paper presents a model for approximating the value of a basket of default-correlated assets and analyzes subordinate tranches in securitized debt obligations. The model is calibrated to an intensity-based simulation of correlated defaults and represents an alternative computation method to full Monte Carlo simulation. Timing of individual obligor defaults are driven by intensity processes and collateral value is modeled with a jump-diffusion process where the number of jumps corresponds to the total number of defaults in the asset pool. This approach allows decomposition of subordinate obligations in terms of a collection of simpler securities and yields useful risk management information.
Author: Youssef Elouerkhaoui Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319609734 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 466
Book Description
This book provides an advanced guide to correlation modelling for credit portfolios, providing both theoretical underpinnings and practical implementation guidance. The book picks up where pre-crisis credit books left off, offering guidance for quants on the latest tools and techniques for credit portfolio modelling in the presence of CVA (Credit Value Adjustments). Written at an advanced level, it assumes that readers are familiar with the fundamentals of credit modelling covered, for example, in the market leading books by Schonbucher (2003) and O’Kane (2008). Coverage will include the latest default correlation approaches; correlation modelling in the ‘Marshall-Olkin’ contagion framework, in the context of CVA; numerical implementation; and pricing, calibration and risk challenges. The explosive growth of credit derivatives markets in the early-to-mid 000’s was bought to a close by the 2007 financial crisis, where these instruments were held largely to blame for the economic downturn. However, in the wake of increased regulation across all financial instruments and the challenge of buying and selling bonds in large amounts, credit derivatives have once again been found to be the answer and the market has grown significantly. Written by a practitioner for practitioners, this book will also interest researchers in mathematical finance who want to understand how things happen and work ‘on the floor’. Building the reader’s knowledge from the ground up, and with numerous real life examples used throughout, this book will prove a popular reference for anyone with a mathematical mind interested credit markets.
Author: Bernd Engelmann Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540330879 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 384
Book Description
A critical problem in the practice of banking risk assessment is the estimation and validation of the Basel II risk parameters PD (default probability), LGD (loss given default), and EAD (exposure at default). This book presents the state-of-the-art in designing and validating rating systems and default probability estimations, and outlines techniques to estimate LGD and EAD. Also included is a chapter on stress testing of the Basel II risk parameters.
Author: Aditya Gadge Publisher: AIWMI ISBN: 9350713810 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 429
Book Description
The Certified Credit Research Analyst (CCRATM) is a comprehensive global education program designed to give an expert level understanding of credit markets to fresh graduates and experienced professionals. It integrates the fundamentals of financial analysis, credit analysis, rating methodologies, credit strategy and structuring. It offers the tools a candidate needs to occupy key positions in the world of finance, private banking, credit ratings and fixed income domain
Author: Gunter Meissner Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118796896 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 268
Book Description
A thorough guide to correlation risk and its growing importance in global financial markets Ideal for anyone studying for CFA, PRMIA, CAIA, or other certifications, Correlation Risk Modeling and Management is the first rigorous guide to the topic of correlation risk. A relatively overlooked type of risk until it caused major unexpected losses during the financial crisis of 2007 through 2009, correlation risk has become a major focus of the risk management departments in major financial institutions, particularly since Basel III specifically addressed correlation risk with new regulations. This offers a rigorous explanation of the topic, revealing new and updated approaches to modelling and risk managing correlation risk. Offers comprehensive coverage of a topic of increasing importance in the financial world Includes the Basel III correlation framework Features interactive models in Excel/VBA, an accompanying website with further materials, and problems and questions at the end of each chapter
Author: Dale W. R. Rosenthal
Author: Dale W. R. Rosenthal
Author: Yue Kuen Kwok
Author: Jiri Witzany
Author: Alexander Lipton
Author: Masahiko Egami
Author: Chunsheng Zhou
Author: Youssef Elouerkhaoui
Author: Bernd Engelmann
Author: Aditya Gadge
Author: Gunter Meissner