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Author: Stephen Glenn Veith Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 59
Book Description
This thesis analyzes and evaluates the utility of using HAZUS-MH, hazard modeling and loss estimation software used by the United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to estimate future losses from climate change influenced flood events under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Current FEMA flood scenario techniques involve generating probabilities for floods for return intervals of 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500 years. These flood return intervals are typically based on historical record, which does not factor changes in climate into future estimates of risk. However, this thesis has integrated projected future flood return intervals and river discharges from the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group. This is done so that future flood return intervals and river discharges, which show an increase in flood frequency and magnitude in the future due to climate change, can be modeled. When climate change is factored into flood modeling, the areas of greatest future risk in a community can be identified. The particular community used as a case study in this thesis is the City of Sultan and surrounding Urban Growth Area. To quantify the difference in exposure and risk, the 5 different scenarios used in this thesis are calculated at 100 year flood return interval periods: the first scenario as the FEMA baseline with no climate data added, the other scenarios use climate projections for 2040 and 2080. These scenarios use existing data incorporated into HAZUS-MH to create river hydrology, depth grids and loss-estimates to building stock and social capital in the present day and in the future using population growth projections. The risk and exposure of each scenario is presented and compared, which ultimately leads to estimates that the designated Sultan Urban Growth Area will incur increased risk and loss in the future as floods become more frequent due to climate change. These results show that current 100 year floodplain boundaries may not adequately inform communities about the potential flood risk in the future due to climate change, and should change how urban planners decide to prepare communities for flooding hazards as the effects of climate change influence river systems.
Author: Stephen Glenn Veith Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 59
Book Description
This thesis analyzes and evaluates the utility of using HAZUS-MH, hazard modeling and loss estimation software used by the United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to estimate future losses from climate change influenced flood events under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Current FEMA flood scenario techniques involve generating probabilities for floods for return intervals of 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500 years. These flood return intervals are typically based on historical record, which does not factor changes in climate into future estimates of risk. However, this thesis has integrated projected future flood return intervals and river discharges from the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group. This is done so that future flood return intervals and river discharges, which show an increase in flood frequency and magnitude in the future due to climate change, can be modeled. When climate change is factored into flood modeling, the areas of greatest future risk in a community can be identified. The particular community used as a case study in this thesis is the City of Sultan and surrounding Urban Growth Area. To quantify the difference in exposure and risk, the 5 different scenarios used in this thesis are calculated at 100 year flood return interval periods: the first scenario as the FEMA baseline with no climate data added, the other scenarios use climate projections for 2040 and 2080. These scenarios use existing data incorporated into HAZUS-MH to create river hydrology, depth grids and loss-estimates to building stock and social capital in the present day and in the future using population growth projections. The risk and exposure of each scenario is presented and compared, which ultimately leads to estimates that the designated Sultan Urban Growth Area will incur increased risk and loss in the future as floods become more frequent due to climate change. These results show that current 100 year floodplain boundaries may not adequately inform communities about the potential flood risk in the future due to climate change, and should change how urban planners decide to prepare communities for flooding hazards as the effects of climate change influence river systems.
Author: Guy J-P. Schumann Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119217903 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 270
Book Description
Global Flood Hazard Subject Category Winner, PROSE Awards 2019, Earth Science Selected from more than 500 entries, demonstrating exceptional scholarship and making a significant contribution to the field of study. Flooding is a costly natural disaster in terms of damage to land, property and infrastructure. This volume describes the latest tools and technologies for modeling, mapping, and predicting large-scale flood risk. It also presents readers with a range of remote sensing data sets successfully used for predicting and mapping floods at different scales. These resources can enable policymakers, public planners, and developers to plan for, and respond to, flooding with greater accuracy and effectiveness. Describes the latest large-scale modeling approaches, including hydrological models, 2-D flood inundation models, and global flood forecasting models Showcases new tools and technologies such as Aqueduct, a new web-based tool used for global assessment and projection of future flood risk under climate change scenarios Features case studies describing best-practice uses of modeling techniques, tools, and technologies Global Flood Hazard is an indispensable resource for researchers, consultants, practitioners, and policy makers dealing with flood risk, flood disaster response, flood management, and flood mitigation.
Author: Slobodan P. Simonović Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139851624 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 197
Book Description
Flood risk management is presented in this book as a framework for identifying, assessing and prioritizing climate-related risks and developing appropriate adaptation responses. Rigorous assessment is employed to determine the available probabilistic and fuzzy set-based analytic tools, when each is appropriate and how to apply them to practical problems. Academic researchers in the fields of hydrology, climate change, environmental science and policy and risk assessment, and professionals and policy-makers working in hazard mitigation, water resources engineering and environmental economics, will find this an invaluable resource. This volume is the fourth in a collection of four books on flood disaster management theory and practice within the context of anthropogenic climate change. The others are: Floods in a Changing Climate: Extreme Precipitation by Ramesh Teegavarapu, Floods in a Changing Climate: Hydrologic Modeling by P. P. Mujumdar and D. Nagesh Kumar and Floods in a Changing Climate: Inundation Modelling by Giuliano Di Baldassarre.
Author: Chingwen Cheng Publisher: ISBN: Category : City planning Languages : en Pages : 162
Book Description
Climate change is projected to increase the intensity and frequency of storm events that would increase flooding hazards. Urbanization associated with land use and land cover change has altered hydrological cycles by increasing stormwater runoff, reducing baseflow and increasing flooding hazards. Combined urbanization and climate change impacts on long-term riparian flooding during future growth are likely to affect more socially vulnerable populations. Growth strategies and green infrastructure are critical planning interventions for minimizing urbanization impacts and mitigating flooding hazards. Within the social-ecological systems planning framework, this empirical research evaluated the effects of planning interventions (infill development and stormwater detention) through a risk assessment in three studies. First, a climate sensitivity study using SWAT modeling was conducted for building a long-term flooding hazard index (HI) and determining climate change impact scenarios. A Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) was constructed using socio-economic variables and statistical methods. Subsequently, the long-term climate change-induced flooding risk index (RI) was formulated by multiplying HI and SoVI. Second, growth strategies in four future growth scenarios developed through the BMA ULTRA-ex project were evaluated through land use change input in SWAT modeling and under climate change impact scenarios for the effects on the risk indices. Third, detention under climate sensitivity study using SWAT modeling was investigated in relation to long-term flooding hazard indices. The results illustrated that increasing temperature decreases HI while increasing precipitation change and land use change would increase HI. In addition, there is a relationship between climate change and growth scenarios which illustrates a potential threshold when the impacts from land use and land cover change diminished under the High impact climate change scenario. Moreover, spatial analysis revealed no correlation between HI and SoVI in their current conditions. Nevertheless, the Current Trends scenario has planned to allocate more people living in the long-term climate change-induced flooding risk hotspots. Finally, the results of using 3% of the watershed area currently available for detention in the model revealed that a projected range of 0 to 8% watershed area would be required to mitigate climate change-induced flooding hazards to the current climate conditions. This research has demonstrated the value of using empirical study on a local scale in order to understand the place-based and watershed-specific flooding risks under linked social-ecological dynamics. The outcomes of evaluating planning interventions are critical to inform policy-makers and practitioners for setting climate change parameters in seeking innovations in planning policy and practices through a transdisciplinary participatory planning process. Subsequently, communities are able to set priorities for allocating resources in order to enhance people's livelihoods and invest in green infrastructure for building communities toward resilience and sustainability.
Author: Jeroen Aerts Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1136528938 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 359
Book Description
This book presents climate adaptation and flood risk problems and solutions in coastal cities including an independent investigation of adaptation paths and problems in Rotterdam, New York and Jakarta. The comparison draws out lessons that each city can learn from the others. While the main focus is on coastal flooding, cities are also affected by climate change in other ways, including impacts that occur away from the coast. The New York City Water Supply System, for example, stretches as far as 120 miles upstate, and the New York City Department of Environmental Protection has undertaken extensive climate assessment not only for its coastal facilities, but also for its upstate facilities, which will be affected by rising temperatures, droughts, inland flooding and water quality changes. The authors examine key questions, such as: Are current city plans climate proof or do we need to finetune our ongoing investments? Can we develop a flood proof subway system? Can we develop new infrastructure in such a way that it serves flood protection, housing and natural values?
Author: Yared Abayneh Abebe Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000368076 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 165
Book Description
The negative impacts of floods are attributed to the extent and magnitude of a flood hazard, and the vulnerability and exposure of natural and human elements. In flood risk management (FRM) studies, it is crucial to model the interaction between human and flood subsystems across multiple spatial, temporal and organizational scales. Models should address the heterogeneity that exists within the human subsystem, and incorporate institutions that shape the behaviour of individuals. Hence, the main objectives of the dissertation are to develop a modelling framework and a methodology to build holistic models for FRM, and to assess how coupled human-flood interaction models support FRM policy analysis and decision-making. To achieve the objectives, the study introduces the Coupled fLood-Agent-Institution Modelling framework (CLAIM). CLAIM integrates actors, institutions, the urban environment, hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes and external factors, which affect FRM activities. The framework draws on the complex system perspective and conceptualizes the interaction of floods, humans and their environment as drivers of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure. The human and flood subsystems are modelled using agent-based models and hydrodynamic models, respectively. The two models are dynamically coupled to understand human-flood interactions and to investigate the effect of institutions on FRM policy analysis.
Author: Zoran Vojinovic Publisher: IWA Publishing ISBN: 1843393875 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 582
Book Description
Flood Risk and Social Justice is a response to the rising significance of floods and flood-related disasters worldwide, as an initiative to promote a socially just approach to the problems of flood risk. It integrates the human-social and the technological components to provide a holistic view. This book treats flooding as a multi-dimensional human and natural world tragedy that must be accommodated using all the social and technological means that can be mobilised before, during and after the flooding event. It covers socially just flood risk mitigation practices which necessitate a wide range of multidisciplinary approaches, starting from social and wider environmental needs, including feedback cycles between human needs and technological means. Flood Risk and Social Justice looks at how to judge whether a risk is acceptable or not by addressing an understanding of social and phenomenological considerations rather than simple calculations of probabilities multiplied by unwanted outcomes and their balancing between costs and benefits. It is argued that the present ‘flood management’ practice should be largely replaced by the social justice approach where particular attention is given to deciding what is the right thing to do within a much wider context. Thus it insists upon the validity of modes of human understanding which cannot be addressed within the limited context of modern science. Flood Risk and Social Justice is written to support a wide range of audiences and seeks to improve the dialogue between researchers and practitioners from different disciplines (including post-graduate engineering, environmental and social science students, industry practitioners, academics, planners, environmental advocacy groups and environmental law professionals) who have a strong interest in a new kind of social justice work that can act as a continuous counter-balance to the various mechanisms that unceasingly give rise to profound injustices. More information about this book can be found in this article written for the WaterWiki by the author: http://www.iwawaterwiki.org/xwiki/bin/view/Articles/FloodRiskandSocialJustice Authors: Zoran Vojinovic is Associate Professor at the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands, with almost 20 years of consulting and research experience in various aspects of water industry in New Zealand, Australia, Asia, Europe, Central/South America and the Caribbean. Michael B. Abbott is Emeritus Professor at the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands, and a Director of the European Institute for Industrial Leadership in Brussels. He founded and developed the disciplines of Computational Hydraulics and Hydroinformatics and co-founded, the Journal of Hydroinformatics with Professor Roger Falconer.
Author: Hieu Quang Ngo Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000612805 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 181
Book Description
Flooding is one of the most frequently occurring and damaging natural disasters worldwide. Quantitative flood risk management (FRM) in the modern context demands statistically robust approaches (e.g. probabilistic) due to the need to deal with complex uncertainties. However, probabilistic estimates often involve ensemble 2D model runs resulting in large computational costs.Additionally, modern FRM necessitates the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders via co-design sessions. This makes it necessary for the flood models, at least at a simplified level, to be understood by and accessible to non-specialists. This study was undertaken to develop a flood modelling system that can provide rapid and sufficiently accurate estimates of flood risk within a methodology that is accessible to a wider range of stakeholders for a coastal city – Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam. A web-based hydraulic tool, Inform, was developed based on a simplified 1D model for the entire Mekong Delta, flood hazard and damage maps, and estimated flood damages for the urban centre of Can Tho city (Ninh Kieu district), containing the must-have features of a co-design tool (e.g. inbuilt input library, flexible options, easy to use, quick results, user-friendly interface). Inform provides rapid flood risk assessments with quantitative information (e.g. flood levels, flood hazard and damage maps, estimated damages) required for co-designing efforts aimed at flood risk reduction for Ninh Kieu district in the future.
Author: Azadeh Ramesh Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9789402406450 Category : Languages : en Pages : 268
Book Description
Based on hydrological, spatial and statistical modeling, this lucidly written, logically arranged book offers an original and novel contribution to flood hazard assessment, climate change and land use change. Includes tables and high quality images.
Author: Stephen Glenn Veith
Author: Stephen Glenn Veith
Author: Guy J-P. Schumann
Author: Slobodan P. Simonović
Author: Chingwen Cheng
Author: Jeroen Aerts
Author: Yared Abayneh Abebe
Author: Zoran Vojinovic
Author: Hieu Quang Ngo
Author: Davor Kvocka
Author: Azadeh Ramesh