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Author: Kwang-shin Choi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Baseball teams Languages : en Pages : 84
Book Description
This dissertation applies the Bayesian approach as a method to improve the estimation efficiency of existing econometric tools. The first chapter suggests the Continuous Choice Bayesian (CCB) estimator which combines the Bayesian approach with the Continuous Choice (CC) estimator suggested by Imai and Keane (2004). Using simulation study, I provide two important findings. First, the CC estimator clearly has better finite sample properties compared to a frequently used Discrete Choice (DC) estimator. Second, the CCB estimator has better estimation efficiency when data size is relatively small and it still retains the advantage of the CC estimator over the DC estimator. The second chapter estimates baseball's managerial efficiency using a stochastic frontier function with the Bayesian approach. When I apply a stochastic frontier model to baseball panel data, the difficult part is that dataset often has a small number of periods, which result in large estimation variance. To overcome this problem, I apply the Bayesian approach to a stochastic frontier analysis. I compare the confidence interval of efficiencies from the Bayesian estimator with the classical frequentist confidence interval. Simulation results show that when I use the Bayesian approach, I achieve smaller estimation variance while I do not lose any reliability in a point estimation. Then, I apply the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis to answer some interesting questions in baseball.
Author: Kwang-shin Choi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Baseball teams Languages : en Pages : 84
Book Description
This dissertation applies the Bayesian approach as a method to improve the estimation efficiency of existing econometric tools. The first chapter suggests the Continuous Choice Bayesian (CCB) estimator which combines the Bayesian approach with the Continuous Choice (CC) estimator suggested by Imai and Keane (2004). Using simulation study, I provide two important findings. First, the CC estimator clearly has better finite sample properties compared to a frequently used Discrete Choice (DC) estimator. Second, the CCB estimator has better estimation efficiency when data size is relatively small and it still retains the advantage of the CC estimator over the DC estimator. The second chapter estimates baseball's managerial efficiency using a stochastic frontier function with the Bayesian approach. When I apply a stochastic frontier model to baseball panel data, the difficult part is that dataset often has a small number of periods, which result in large estimation variance. To overcome this problem, I apply the Bayesian approach to a stochastic frontier analysis. I compare the confidence interval of efficiencies from the Bayesian estimator with the classical frequentist confidence interval. Simulation results show that when I use the Bayesian approach, I achieve smaller estimation variance while I do not lose any reliability in a point estimation. Then, I apply the Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis to answer some interesting questions in baseball.
Author: Subal C. Kumbhakar Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1107717302 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 348
Book Description
Modern textbook presentations of production economics typically treat producers as successful optimizers. Conventional econometric practice has generally followed this paradigm, and least squares based regression techniques have been used to estimate production, cost, profit and other functions. In such a framework deviations from maximum output, from minimum cost and cost minimizing input demands, and from maximum profit and profit maximizing output supplies and input demands, are attributed exclusively to random statistical noise. However casual empiricism and the business press both make persuasive cases for the argument that, although producers may indeed attempt to optimize, they do not always succeed. This book develops econometric techniques for the estimation of production, cost and profit frontiers, and for the estimation of the technical and economic efficiency with which producers approach these frontiers. Since these frontiers envelop rather than intersect the data, and since the authors continue to maintain the traditional econometric belief in the presence of external forces contributing to random statistical noise, the work is titled Stochastic Frontier Analysis.
Author: Carmen Fernandez Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
We consider a Bayesian analysis of the stochastic frontier model with composed error. Under a commonly used class of (partly) noninformative prior distributions, the existence of the posterior distribution and of posterior moments is examined. Viewing this model as a Normal linear regression model with regression parameters corresponding to both the frontier and the inefficiency terms, generates the insights used to derive results in a very wide framework. It is found that in pure cross-section models posterior inference is precluded under this "usual" class of priors. Existence of a well-defined posterior distribution crucially hinges upon the structure imposed on the inefficiency terms. Exploiting panel data naturally suggests the use of more structured models, where Bayesian inference can be conducted.
Author: Gary Koop Publisher: Now Publishers Inc ISBN: 160198362X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 104
Book Description
Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics provides a survey of the Bayesian methods used in modern empirical macroeconomics. These models have been developed to address the fact that most questions of interest to empirical macroeconomists involve several variables and must be addressed using multivariate time series methods. Many different multivariate time series models have been used in macroeconomics, but Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have been among the most popular. Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics reviews and extends the Bayesian literature on VARs, TVP-VARs and TVP-FAVARs with a focus on the practitioner. The authors go beyond simply defining each model, but specify how to use them in practice, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each and offer tips on when and why each model can be used.
Author: Mike West Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1475793650 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 720
Book Description
In this book we are concerned with Bayesian learning and forecast ing in dynamic environments. We describe the structure and theory of classes of dynamic models, and their uses in Bayesian forecasting. The principles, models and methods of Bayesian forecasting have been developed extensively during the last twenty years. This devel opment has involved thorough investigation of mathematical and sta tistical aspects of forecasting models and related techniques. With this has come experience with application in a variety of areas in commercial and industrial, scientific and socio-economic fields. In deed much of the technical development has been driven by the needs of forecasting practitioners. As a result, there now exists a relatively complete statistical and mathematical framework, although much of this is either not properly documented or not easily accessible. Our primary goals in writing this book have been to present our view of this approach to modelling and forecasting, and to provide a rea sonably complete text for advanced university students and research workers. The text is primarily intended for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students in statistics and mathematics. In line with this objective we present thorough discussion of mathematical and statistical features of Bayesian analyses of dynamic models, with illustrations, examples and exercises in each Chapter.
Author: Subal C. Kumbhakar Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1316194493 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 375
Book Description
A Practitioner's Guide to Stochastic Frontier Analysis Using Stata provides practitioners in academia and industry with a step-by-step guide on how to conduct efficiency analysis using the stochastic frontier approach. The authors explain in detail how to estimate production, cost, and profit efficiency and introduce the basic theory of each model in an accessible way, using empirical examples that demonstrate the interpretation and application of models. This book also provides computer code, allowing users to apply the models in their own work, and incorporates the most recent stochastic frontier models developed in academic literature. Such recent developments include models of heteroscedasticity and exogenous determinants of inefficiency, scaling models, panel models with time-varying inefficiency, growth models, and panel models that separate firm effects and persistent and transient inefficiency. Immensely helpful to applied researchers, this book bridges the chasm between theory and practice, expanding the range of applications in which production frontier analysis may be implemented.
Author: Olivier Pourret Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9780470994542 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 446
Book Description
Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.
Author: Svetlozar T. Rachev Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470249242 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 351
Book Description
Bayesian Methods in Finance provides a detailed overview of the theory of Bayesian methods and explains their real-world applications to financial modeling. While the principles and concepts explained throughout the book can be used in financial modeling and decision making in general, the authors focus on portfolio management and market risk management—since these are the areas in finance where Bayesian methods have had the greatest penetration to date.
Author: Kwang-shin Choi
Author: Kwang-shin Choi
Author: Subal C. Kumbhakar
Author: Carmen Fernandez
Author: 李睿耆
Author: Gary Koop
Author: Mike West
Author: Ciro Montagano
Author: Subal C. Kumbhakar
Author: Olivier Pourret
Author: Svetlozar T. Rachev