Antithetic Acceleration of Monte Carlo Integration in Bayesian Inference PDF Download

Author: John Geweke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monte Carlo method
Languages : en
Pages : 22

View

Book Description

Author: John Geweke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 32

View

Book Description

Author: Johan Dahlin
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
ISBN: 9176857972
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 139

View

Book Description
Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.

Author: Michael Evans
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 019158987X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 302

View

Book Description
This book is designed to introduce graduate students and researchers to the primary methods useful for approximating integrals. The emphasis is on those methods that have been found to be of practical use, and although the focus is on approximating higher- dimensional integrals the lower-dimensional case is also covered. Included in the book are asymptotic techniques, multiple quadrature and quasi-random techniques as well as a complete development of Monte Carlo algorithms. For the Monte Carlo section importance sampling methods, variance reduction techniques and the primary Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are covered. This book brings these various techniques together for the first time, and hence provides an accessible textbook and reference for researchers in a wide variety of disciplines.

Author: Christian Robert
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475730713
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 522

View

Book Description
We have sold 4300 copies worldwide of the first edition (1999). This new edition contains five completely new chapters covering new developments.

Author: John Geweke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometric models
Languages : en
Pages : 70

View

Book Description

Author: Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470685697
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 500

View

Book Description
Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics and Kendall's Library of Statistics The development of modern statistical theory in the past fifty years is reflected in the history of the late Sir Maurice Kenfall's volumes The Advanced Theory of Statistics. The Advanced Theory began life as a two-volume work, and since its first appearance in 1943, has been an indispensable source for the core theory of classical statistics. With Bayesian Inference, the same high standard has been applied to this important and exciting new body of theory.

Author: Jeffrey H. Dorfman
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387226354
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 115

View

Book Description
Providing researchers in economics, finance, and statistics with an up-to-date introduction to applying Bayesian techniques to empirical studies, this book covers the full range of the new numerical techniques which have been developed over the last thirty years. Notably, these are: Monte Carlo sampling, antithetic replication, importance sampling, and Gibbs sampling. The author covers both advances in theory and modern approaches to numerical and applied problems, and includes applications drawn from a variety of different fields within economics, while also providing a quick overview of the underlying statistical ideas of Bayesian thought. The result is a book which presents a roadmap of applied economic questions that can now be addressed empirically with Bayesian methods. Consequently, many researchers will find this a readily readable survey of this growing topic.

Author: Luc Bauwens
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191588466
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 370

View

Book Description
This book contains an up-to-date coverage of the last twenty years advances in Bayesian inference in econometrics, with an emphasis on dynamic models. It shows how to treat Bayesian inference in non linear models, by integrating the useful developments of numerical integration techniques based on simulations (such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods), and the long available analytical results of Bayesian inference for linear regression models. It thus covers a broad range of rather recent models for economic time series, such as non linear models, autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic regressions, and cointegrated vector autoregressive models. It contains also an extensive chapter on unit root inference from the Bayesian viewpoint. Several examples illustrate the methods.

Author: Christian P. Robert
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475743149
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 444

View

Book Description
This graduate-level textbook covers both the basic ideas of statistical theory, and also some of the more modern and advanced topics of Bayesian statistics, such as complete class theorems, the Stein effect, hierarchical and empirical Bayes modelling, Monte Carlo integration, and Gibbs sampling. In translating the book from the original French, the author has taken the opportunity to add and update material, and to include many problems and exercises for students.