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Author: Lawrence D. Brown Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 8
Book Description
Dreman and Berry (1995) have offered a perspective on analyst earnings forecast errors and their implications for security analysis. Among other arguments, they contend that the errors are too large to be reliably used by investors, the forecasts are less accurate than forecasts by time-series models, the errors are increasing over time, the analysts' forecasts are too optimistic, and the investment community relies too heavily on analyst forecasts. An alternative perspective on these issues is offered. The argument is that analysts' forecast errors are within 3% of an appropriate benchmark (namely, stock price), that their forecasts generally are significantly more accurate than forecasts by naive or sophisticated time-series models, that analyst forecast errors have not been increasing over time, that analysts have been too pessimistic in recent years, and that the investment community, by placing too much weight on forecasts made by time-series models, relies too little on analysts' forecasts.
Author: Lawrence D. Brown Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 8
Book Description
Dreman and Berry (1995) have offered a perspective on analyst earnings forecast errors and their implications for security analysis. Among other arguments, they contend that the errors are too large to be reliably used by investors, the forecasts are less accurate than forecasts by time-series models, the errors are increasing over time, the analysts' forecasts are too optimistic, and the investment community relies too heavily on analyst forecasts. An alternative perspective on these issues is offered. The argument is that analysts' forecast errors are within 3% of an appropriate benchmark (namely, stock price), that their forecasts generally are significantly more accurate than forecasts by naive or sophisticated time-series models, that analyst forecast errors have not been increasing over time, that analysts have been too pessimistic in recent years, and that the investment community, by placing too much weight on forecasts made by time-series models, relies too little on analysts' forecasts.
Author: John Guerard Publisher: JAI Press(NY) ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 264
Book Description
Part of a series on contemporary studies in economic and financial analysis, this volume focuses on security analyst forecasting and asset allocation. Topics include market response to earning forecasts; and the effectiveness of security analysts' forecasts; among others.
Author: Henock Louis Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
We posit that, because incorporating the effect of accounting conservatism on earnings forecasts likely requires a higher degree of sophistication, the ability to adjust earnings forecasts for conservatism should vary across security analysts. Consistent with this conjecture, we find that less experienced analysts are less able to account for the effect of conservatism when forecasting earnings. More specifically, we find that the initial optimism in analyst forecasts increases with accounting conservatism and that this relation significantly decreases with analyst experience. This finding has several implications. First, it indicates that the lack of sophistication by some analysts is likely one reason for the apparent bias in the initial forecast documented. Second, it suggests that conservatism could under certain circumstances result in stock mispricing. Third, it calls for a greater emphasis on the cross-sectional determinants of conservatism in accounting and financial statement analysis curriculums.
Author: Alan Lewis Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1108548784 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 808
Book Description
There has recently been an escalated interest in the interface between psychology and economics. The Cambridge Handbook of Psychology and Economic Behaviour is a valuable reference dedicated to improving our understanding of the economic mind and economic behaviour. Employing empirical methods - including laboratory and field experiments, observations, questionnaires and interviews - the Handbook provides comprehensive coverage of theory and method, financial and consumer behaviour, the environment and biological perspectives. This second edition also includes new chapters on topics such as neuroeconomics, unemployment, debt, behavioural public finance, and cutting-edge work on fuzzy trace theory and robots, cyborgs and consumption. With distinguished contributors from a variety of countries and theoretical backgrounds, the Handbook is an important step forward in the improvement of communications between the disciplines of psychology and economics that will appeal to academic researchers and graduates in economic psychology and behavioral economics.
Author: Gordon J. Alexander Publisher: Pearson Educación ISBN: 9789702603757 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 824
Book Description
This introduction provides a clear framework for understanding and analyzing securities, and covers the major institutional features and theories of investing. While the book presents a thorough discussion of investments, the authors keep the material practical, relevant, and easy to understand. The latest developments in investments are brought to life through the use of tables, graphs, and illustrations that incorporate current market information and academic research. An international content deals directly with international securities and securities markets throughout the book--along with currency management and interest rate parity. Up-to-date "Money Matters" articles reflect the latest real-world developments and are provided throughout each chapter to give readers a sense of how practitioners deal with various investment issues and use techniques. Other coverage includes an array of investment tools--presented through discussions on stocks, bonds, and other securities such as options and futures. A guide to reviewing, forecasting, and monitoring--for individuals preparing to make investments or take the CFA exam.
Author: Brian Portnoy Publisher: Macmillan + ORM ISBN: 1137401265 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 257
Book Description
Investors are in a jam. A troubled global economy, unpredictable markets, and a bewildering number of investment choices create a dangerous landscape for individual and institutional investors alike. To meet this challenge, most of us rely on a portfolio of fund managers to take risk on our behalves. Here, investment expert Brian Portnoy delivers a powerful framework for choosing the right ones – and avoiding the losers. Portnoy reveals that the right answers are found by confronting our own subconscious biases and behavioral quirks. A paradox we all face is the natural desire for more choice in our lives, yet the more we have, the less satisfied we become – whether we're at the grocery store, choosing doctors, or flipping through hundreds of TV channels. So, too, with investing, where there are literally tens of thousands of funds from which to choose. Hence "the investor's paradox": We crave abundant investment choices to conquer volatile markets, yet with greater flexibility, the more overwhelmed and less empowered we become. Leveraging the fresh insights of behavioral economics, Portnoy demystifies the opaque world of elite hedge funds, addresses the limits of mass market mutual funds, and discards the false dichotomy between "traditional" and "alternative" investments. He also explores why hedge funds have recently become such a controversial and disruptive force. Turns out it's not the splashy headlines – spectacular trades, newly minted billionaires, aggressive tactics – but something much more fundamental. The stratospheric rise to prominence and availability of alternative strategies represents a further explosion in the size and complexity of the choice set in a market already saturated with products. It constitutes something we all both crave and detest. The Investor's Paradox lights a path toward simplicity in a world of dangerous markets and overwhelming choice. Written in accessible, jargon-free language, with a healthy skepticism of today's money management industry, it offers not only practical tools for investment success but also a message of empowerment for investors drowning in possibility.
Author: Greg N. Gregoriou Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional ISBN: 0071663711 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 529
Book Description
Addresses newly exposed weaknesses of financial risk models in the context of market stress scenarios This will be the definitive book for readers looking to improve their approach to modeling financial risk
Author: David Dreman Publisher: Simon and Schuster ISBN: 0743297962 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 498
Book Description
Introduces important new findings in psychology to demonstrate why most investment strategies are flawed, outlining atypical strategies designed to prevent over- and under-valuations while crash-proofing a portfolio.
Author: Robert E. Litan Publisher: Brookings Institution Press ISBN: 9780815706885 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 382
Book Description
This annual series from the Brookings Institution and the Financial Institutions Center at the Wharton School provides timely and insightful analyses of the financial services industry. Contents: The Future of Securities Exchanges Ruben Lee The Structure of the U.S. Equity Markets Marshall E. Blume Changes in the Ownership and Governance of Securities Exchanges: Causes and Consequences Benn Steil Wall Street's Credibility Problem: Misaligned Incentives and Dubious Fixes? Leslie Boni and Kent L. Womack The Immediacy Implications of Exchange Organization James T. Moser The Future of Stock Exchanges in Emerging Economies: Evolution and Prospects Stijn Claessens, Daniela Kingebiel, and Sergio L. Schmukler ISDA, NASD, CFMA, and SDNY: The Four Horsemen of Derivatives Regulation? Frank Partnoy The Future of the Foreign Exchange Market Richard K. Lyons The Future of the New Issues Market Jay R. Ritter Implications of Auction Theory for New Issues Markets Lawrence M. Asubel
Author: Oliver Kim Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
We evaluate the ability of the mean analyst forecast to effectively summarize analysts' information. We show analytically that even if analysts possess the ability and intention to forecast earnings truthfully, the mean forecast underweights analysts' private information. Thus, the mean does not adequately aggregate the full set of information individual analysts use in making their forecasts. Since the mean underweights private information, the problem worsens as the number of analysts forecasting earnings increases. We show that a positive multiple of forecast revision can be used to reduce the impact of improper information aggregation. We show empirically that forecast errors are positively related to forecast revision, and this relation is increasing in the number of forecasts made. Our results have implications for researchers who use the mean analyst forecast to proxy for the market's expectations of earnings.
Author: Lawrence D. Brown
Author: Lawrence D. Brown
Author: John Guerard
Author: Henock Louis
Author: Alan Lewis
Author: Gordon J. Alexander
Author: Brian Portnoy
Author: Greg N. Gregoriou
Author: David Dreman
Author: Robert E. Litan
Author: Oliver Kim