An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis PDF full book. Access full book title An Investigation of the Accuracy of Heuristic Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis by Wendell Phillips Simpson. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Wendell Phillips Simpson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
Cost uncertainty analysis has received a great deal of attention over the last several years. The purpose of a cost uncertainty analysis is to identify the cost and schedule implications associated with program uncertainties. Common methods for uncertainty analysis characterize the possible cost and schedule outcomes of a project using a probability density function (pdf). Heuristic methods have been proposed for uncertainty analysis that assume the shape of the total cost pdf is either normally or lognormally distributed. While experienced analysts feel these distributions provide reasonable approximations, little evidence exists to either confirm or refute these presumptions. An experiment is conducted in which number of cost elements, the degree of skewness of the cost elements, and the degree of correlation between cost elements are varied systematically. The resulting total cost pdfs are compared to the heuristic distributions using goodness of fit tests. The results show that the normal distribution provides an excellent approximation for the simulated distributions. Guidelines are offered that help the cost analyst determine whether these heuristics ought to be applied in a cost uncertainty analysis. Cost analysis, Cost uncertainty analysis.
Author: Wendell Phillips Simpson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
Cost uncertainty analysis has received a great deal of attention over the last several years. The purpose of a cost uncertainty analysis is to identify the cost and schedule implications associated with program uncertainties. Common methods for uncertainty analysis characterize the possible cost and schedule outcomes of a project using a probability density function (pdf). Heuristic methods have been proposed for uncertainty analysis that assume the shape of the total cost pdf is either normally or lognormally distributed. While experienced analysts feel these distributions provide reasonable approximations, little evidence exists to either confirm or refute these presumptions. An experiment is conducted in which number of cost elements, the degree of skewness of the cost elements, and the degree of correlation between cost elements are varied systematically. The resulting total cost pdfs are compared to the heuristic distributions using goodness of fit tests. The results show that the normal distribution provides an excellent approximation for the simulated distributions. Guidelines are offered that help the cost analyst determine whether these heuristics ought to be applied in a cost uncertainty analysis. Cost analysis, Cost uncertainty analysis.
Author: Paul R. Garvey Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 148221976X Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 526
Book Description
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
Author: Paul R. Garvey Publisher: ISBN: 9780429132865 Category : Electronic books Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
A careful blend of theory and practice, this book presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the impact of unplanned events on the cost of engineering complex systems. It illustrates how probability theory is applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of a systems engineering project. The book contains numerous mathematical and prof
Author: Leveen Kanal Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1461387884 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 491
Book Description
Search is an important component of problem solving in artificial intelligence (AI) and, more generally, in computer science, engineering and operations research. Combinatorial optimization, decision analysis, game playing, learning, planning, pattern recognition, robotics and theorem proving are some of the areas in which search algbrithms playa key role. Less than a decade ago the conventional wisdom in artificial intelligence was that the best search algorithms had already been invented and the likelihood of finding new results in this area was very small. Since then many new insights and results have been obtained. For example, new algorithms for state space, AND/OR graph, and game tree search were discovered. Articles on new theoretical developments and experimental results on backtracking, heuristic search and constraint propaga tion were published. The relationships among various search and combinatorial algorithms in AI, Operations Research, and other fields were clarified. This volume brings together some of this recent work in a manner designed to be accessible to students and professionals interested in these new insights and developments.
Author: Charles Yoe Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0429664893 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 873
Book Description
In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.
Author: Said Broumi Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1040043062 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 348
Book Description
Zadeh introduced in 1965 the theory of fuzzy sets, in which truth values are modelled by numbers in the unit interval [0, 1], for tackling mathematically the frequently appearing in everyday life partial truths. In a second stage, when membership functions were reinterpreted as possibility distributions, fuzzy sets were extensively used to embrace uncertainty modelling. Uncertainty is defined as the shortage of precise knowledge or complete information and possibility theory is devoted to the handling of incomplete information. Zadeh articulated the relationship between possibility and probability, noticing that what is probable must preliminarily be possible. Following the Zadeh’s fuzzy set, various generalizations (intuitionistic, neutrosophic, rough, soft sets, etc.) have been introduced enabling a more effective management of all types of the existing in real world uncertainty. This book presents recent theoretical advances and applications of fuzzy sets and their extensions to Science, Humanities and Education. This book: Presents a qualitative assessment of big data in the education sector using linguistic Quadri partitioned single valued neutrosophic soft sets. Showcases application of n-cylindrical fuzzy neutrosophic sets in education using neutrosophic affinity degree and neutrosophic similarity Index. Covers scientific evaluation of student academic performance using single value neutrosophic Markov chain. Illustrates multi-granulation single-valued neutrosophic probabilistic rough sets for teamwork assessment. Examines estimation of distribution algorithm based on multiple attribute group decision-making to evaluate teaching quality. It is primarily written for Senior undergraduate and graduate students and academic researchers in the fields of electrical engineering, electronics and communication engineering, computer science and engineering.
Author: Natalie M. Scala Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 042988396X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 481
Book Description
Operations research (OR) is a core discipline in military and defense management. Coming to the forefront initially during World War II, OR provided critical contributions to logistics, supply chains, and strategic simulation, while enabling superior decision-making for Allied forces. OR has grown to include analytics and many applications, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and big data, and is the cornerstone of management science in manufacturing, marketing, telecommunications, and many other fields. The Handbook of Military and Defense Operations Research presents the voices leading OR and analytics to new heights in security through research, practical applications, case studies, and lessons learned in the field. Features Applies the experiences of educators and practitioners working in the field Employs the latest technology developments in case studies and applications Identifies best practices unique to the military, security, and national defense problem space Highlights similarities and dichotomies between analyses and trends that are unique to military, security, and defense problems.
Author: Wendell Phillips Simpson
Author: Wendell Phillips Simpson
Author: Paul R. Garvey
Author: 
Author: 
Author: Paul R. Garvey
Author: Leveen Kanal
Author: Charles Yoe
Author: Said Broumi
Author: 
Author: Natalie M. Scala