An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length PDF Download
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Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Inflation (Finance) Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
It is often suggested that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information about the expected future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread between the 12-month and 3-month interest rates helps to predict the difference between the 12-month and 3-month inflation rates. His approach however, lacks a theoretical foundation, other than the (rejected) hypothesis that the real interest rate is constant. This paper applies a simple existing theoretical framework, which allows the real interest rate to vary in the short run but converge to a constant in the long run, to the problem of predicting the inflation spread. It is shown that the appropriate indicator of expected inflation can make use of the entire length of the yield curve, in particular by estimating the steepness of a specific nonlinear transformation of the curve, rather than being restricted to a spread between two points. The resulting indicator, besides having a firmer theoretical foundation does a relatively good job of predicting the inflation rate over the period 1960 to 1988.
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Inflation (Finance) Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
It is often suggested that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information about the expected future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread between the 12-month and 3-month interest rates helps to predict the difference between the 12-month and 3-month inflation rates. His approach however, lacks a theoretical foundation, other than the (rejected) hypothesis that the real interest rate is constant. This paper applies a simple existing theoretical framework, which allows the real interest rate to vary in the short run but converge to a constant in the long run, to the problem of predicting the inflation spread. It is shown that the appropriate indicator of expected inflation can make use of the entire length of the yield curve, in particular by estimating the steepness of a specific nonlinear transformation of the curve, rather than being restricted to a spread between two points. The resulting indicator, besides having a firmer theoretical foundation does a relatively good job of predicting the inflation rate over the period 1960 to 1988.
Author: Francis X. Diebold Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691146802 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 223
Book Description
Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 9780262061742 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 342
Book Description
In this second collection of his writings on financial markets (the first, On Exchange Rates, covered international finance), Jeffrey Frankel turns his attention to domestic markets, with special attention to how national monetary policy is handled. The decade of the 1980s left many central bankers disillusioned with monetarism, so that the question of the optimal nominal anchor remains an open one. In this second collection of his writings on financial markets (the first, On Exchange Rates, covered international finance), Jeffrey Frankel turns his attention to domestic markets, with special attention to how national monetary policy is handled. The fifteen papers are divided into three sections, each introduced by the author. They cover, respectively, optimal portfolio diversification, indicators of expected inflation, and the determination of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty. In the first section, Frankel explores what information the theory of optimal portfolio diversification can give the macroeconomist. In the second section, he considers what economic variables central bankers might use to gauge whether monetary policy is too tight or too loose. And in the final section, he looks at the range of uncertainty over policy effects and how that complicates coordination of macroeconomic policymaking. The book concludes with a sympathetic analysis of nominal GDP targeting.
Author: M. Nikolic Publisher: Springer ISBN: 023051233X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 172
Book Description
This book explores the disastrous economic consequences of pseudo lending for pseudo reforms that occurred when the IMF, as a representative of the West, pretended to aid the transition economy of post-communist Russia through stabilization while the Russian government promised reforms.
Author: José António Tenreiro Machado Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 146140231X Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 328
Book Description
Nonlinear Dynamics of Complex Systems describes chaos, fractal and stochasticities within celestial mechanics, financial systems and biochemical systems. Part I discusses methods and applications in celestial systems and new results in such areas as low energy impact dynamics, low-thrust planar trajectories to the moon and earth-to-halo transfers in the sun, earth and moon. Part II presents the dynamics of complex systems including bio-systems, neural systems, chemical systems and hydro-dynamical systems. Finally, Part III covers economic and financial systems including market uncertainty, inflation, economic activity and foreign competition and the role of nonlinear dynamics in each.
Author: Wolfgang Bühler Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642586643 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 321
Book Description
This collection of fifteen original articles results from a cooperative intensive program of research on the German capital market. The program objectives included the development of expertise in modern empirical methods in financial economics and the derivation of results that might be specific to the German capital market. The four parts of the book are dedicated to: - problems of market structure and organization - information and capital market - risk and return - futures and options Altogether, the book gives an overview of empirical research on capital markets in Germany and helps to understand their nature. It also shows the application of modern techniques in financial research.
Author: Christian Richter Publisher: LIT Verlag Münster ISBN: 3825816141 Category : Capital market Languages : en Pages : 197
Book Description
The dominant hypothesis in mainstream economics is the assumption of prefect rationality. However, there are two dilemmas: Whenever this assumption was used empirical evidence turned out to be against it. Secondly, this assumption is far from reality, for example, because individuals usually do not possess all relevant information. Therefore, this volume addresses issues of bounded rationality in different areas. The first part investigates bounded rationality in financial markets, the second part investigates the effects of bounded rationality on industrial organizations and the third part deals with bounded rationality in price theory, environmental economics and public management.
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Author: 
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Author: M. Nikolic
Author: José António Tenreiro Machado
Author: Wolfgang Bühler
Author: Christian Richter