An Experiment on Case-Based Decision Making PDF Download

Author: Brit Grosskopf
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38

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Book Description
We experimentally investigate the disposition of decision makers to use case-based reasoning as suggested by Case-Based Decision Theory (Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1995). Our subjects face a monopoly decision problem about which they have very limited information. Information is presented in a manner which makes similarity judgements according to the feature matching model of Tversky (1977) very plausible. In a 2x2 between-subject design, we vary whether information about the current market is given, in addition to a history, or not. Furthermore, we investigate the impact feedback has on behavior in several independent markets by either giving immediate feedback about obtained profits or not. The results provide some support for the predictions of Case-Based Decision Theory, particularly when no immediate feedback is given. We also find evidence that other simple heuristics are used.

Author: Luigi Luini
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461550831
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 360

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Book Description
Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.

Author: Michael Luca
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262542277
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 229

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Book Description
How tech companies like Google, Airbnb, StubHub, and Facebook learn from experiments in our data-driven world—an excellent primer on experimental and behavioral economics Have you logged into Facebook recently? Searched for something on Google? Chosen a movie on Netflix? If so, you've probably been an unwitting participant in a variety of experiments—also known as randomized controlled trials—designed to test the impact of different online experiences. Once an esoteric tool for academic research, the randomized controlled trial has gone mainstream. No tech company worth its salt (or its share price) would dare make major changes to its platform without first running experiments to understand how they would influence user behavior. In this book, Michael Luca and Max Bazerman explain the importance of experiments for decision making in a data-driven world. Luca and Bazerman describe the central role experiments play in the tech sector, drawing lessons and best practices from the experiences of such companies as StubHub, Alibaba, and Uber. Successful experiments can save companies money—eBay, for example, discovered how to cut $50 million from its yearly advertising budget—or bring to light something previously ignored, as when Airbnb was forced to confront rampant discrimination by its hosts. Moving beyond tech, Luca and Bazerman consider experimenting for the social good—different ways that governments are using experiments to influence or “nudge” behavior ranging from voter apathy to school absenteeism. Experiments, they argue, are part of any leader's toolkit. With this book, readers can become part of “the experimental revolution.”

Author: Richard W. Morris
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128120991
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 486

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Book Description
Goal-Directed Decision Making: Computations and Neural Circuits examines the role of goal-directed choice. It begins with an examination of the computations performed by associated circuits, but then moves on to in-depth examinations on how goal-directed learning interacts with other forms of choice and response selection. This is the only book that embraces the multidisciplinary nature of this area of decision-making, integrating our knowledge of goal-directed decision-making from basic, computational, clinical, and ethology research into a single resource that is invaluable for neuroscientists, psychologists and computer scientists alike. The book presents discussions on the broader field of decision-making and how it has expanded to incorporate ideas related to flexible behaviors, such as cognitive control, economic choice, and Bayesian inference, as well as the influences that motivation, context and cues have on behavior and decision-making. Details the neural circuits functionally involved in goal-directed decision-making and the computations these circuits perform Discusses changes in goal-directed decision-making spurred by development and disorders, and within real-world applications, including social contexts and addiction Synthesizes neuroscience, psychology and computer science research to offer a unique perspective on the central and emerging issues in goal-directed decision-making

Author: Denise L. Robinson
Publisher: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
ISBN: 9780781729949
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 440

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Book Description
This essential text presents and explains every aspect of clinical decision making, providing a sound base of knowledge for confidence and accuracy. Its format incorporates principles of problem-based learning methods that are used in many nursing programs. The revised Second Edition contains 20 new case studies of the most common diseases and disorders encountered in family practice; each includes a review of all the information necessary for developing a plan of care and emphasizes differential diagnosis and clinical reasoning for the nurse practitioner. The text's problem-oriented format promotes and strengthens critical thinking skills. Additional features include: tutorials; holistic health considerations; case accuracy; laboratory tests that require learners to interpret tests and their impact on a patient's condition; interdisciplinary collaboration; decision trees that are applicable to each case; research-based outcomes; complementary therapies; and much more. A Brandon-Hill Recommended Title.

Author: Helen Bao
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9780429027253
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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Book Description
This book takes a behavioural approach to examine six important housing questions: tenure decision, gentrification, place attachment, housing bubbles, housing wealth, and residential satisfaction. Using experimental and field data, the book demonstrates the effects of six behavioural biases and heuristics (i.e., anchoring and reference dependence, loss aversion, mental accounting, endowment effect, herd behaviours, and social comparison) on these housing decisions. The first part of the book introduces the questions and provides a behavioural science toolbox before the second part adopts a real-world case study approach. Real data sets and suggested answers are provided, and the cases come from the UK, USA, and China. Background information is given in each case to facilitate the understanding of the case data and question, as well as the discussions on the results. This book is ideal supplementary reading on a variety of courses such as housing studies, economics, real estate, research methods, and for students and academics who are interested in the application of behavioural science in housing decisions.

Author: Stephanie Chitpin
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1800718179
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Book Description
Understanding Decision-Making in Educational Contexts presents 'problem cases' confronting school leaders in real settings, and illustrates the multiple approaches that school leaders draw upon to navigate complex and challenging decision-making contexts.

Author: Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521003117
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 214

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Book Description
This work, a paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty, describes the general theory and its relationship to planning, repeated choice problems, inductive inference, and learning; and highlights its mathematical and philosophical foundations.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309180538
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 124

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Book Description
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030052524
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 408

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Book Description
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.