An Econometric Model of the New Zealand Lumber Market PDF Download

Author: David Evison
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forest products
Languages : en
Pages : 238

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Author: William G. Luppold
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 20

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Author: William G. Luppold
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Econometrics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: M. Hossein Haeri
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forest products industry
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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Book Description

Author: Andres Katz
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forest products
Languages : en
Pages : 224

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Book Description
To facilitate policy making and improve understanding of issues facing the New Zealand forest sector, a spatial equilibrium model was developed for log and lumber trade in the Pacific Rim. Regions included in the model were New Zealand, Chile, Australia, Japan, Eastern Canada, British Columbia: Coast and Interior, and the United States. Eight products were recognized in each market, characterized by their species group. Demand and supply relationships were econometrically estimated over the sample period 1966 to 1983; a reactive programming procedure was adopted to solve for annual market equilibrium prices and quantities. Inventory growth and drain models provided the necessary parameters to specify annual marginal cost functions for Radiata pine log supply from New Zealand and Chile. The validation procedure included simulating over a future period, from 1983 to 2010, under alternate economic and policy environments. Specifically, the model was used to investigate the impacts on Radiata pine markets of increased resource availability in New Zealand and Chile; the effects of a lower New Zealand exchange rate, and the indirect effects from a scenario of low growth in United States lumber consumption. Supply and demand for Radiata pine lumber in New Zealand were both inelastic, in contrast to Japan and Australia, reflecting lower substitution possibilities between timber species. Demand and supply behavior varied greatly between species. Baseline projections to 2010 indicated Radiata pine prices in New Zealand will decline by 23 percent, associated with a build up in inventory above the minimum harvest age. This was attributable to the high afforestation rates in New Zealand and Chile from the 1960's on.

Author: William J. Lange
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hardwoods
Languages : en
Pages : 242

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Book Description
Two econometric models were developed to forecast consumption, production, and price of hardwood lumber, and removals and price of hardwood sawlog stumpage. Four eastern U.S. regions were represented in the models. Hardwood lumber consumption by manufacturing, shipping, residential construction, and nonresidential construction industries was recognized. Hardwood sawlog stumpage removals from nonindustrial private and forest industry ownerships were identified in each of the four eastern regions. Each model consisted of behavioral relationships which explain consumption, production, or removals as a function of price and other explanatory variables. Estimates of these relationships were developed using annual time series data for the sample period 1960 to 1976. Based on the analysis of historical simulations, the models appeared to provide adequate predictive ability to be used to develop forecasts. Hardwood lumber consumption, production, and price were forecast to increase to the year 2030. Manufacturing and shipping industries increase their share of hardwood lumber consumption over this time period. Hardwood lumber production shares increase for the two southern regions. Hardwood sawlog stumpage removals for the nonindustrial private and forest industry ownerships were forecast to increase. The nonindustrial private share of hardwood sawlog stumpage removals declines. Hardwood sawlog stumpage prices were forecast to decline in three of the four eastern regions.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertations, Academic
Languages : en
Pages : 606

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Book Description

Author: Walter C. Labys
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1003846718
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 222

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Book Description
Originally published in 1984 this book remains as relevant as when it was first published. At that time the oil crises of the 1970s and the growing international debt burden highlighted the extent to which events in primary commodity markets continue to influence the economies of developing and industrialized economies alike. Commodity modelling has become a valuable tool in efforts to predict and understand the behaviour of commodity markets and thereby reduce their fluctuations. This book provides an overview of the nature of the different types of commodity model as well as their diverse applications. In non-technical language the reader is introduced to the underlying modelling methodologies, including their advantages, limitations and commodity specific implications. The book will be of interest to commodity economists, traders and analysts, economic planners and those involved in agricultural, mineral and energy modelling.

Author: Ray Brooks
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 104

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Book Description

Author: Brent L. Sohngen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Lumber
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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Book Description