An Econometric Analysis of International Tourism Demand PDF Download

Author: Christine M. L. Lim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Time-series analysis
Languages : en
Pages : 654

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Author: Haiyan Song
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135852979
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 234

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Book Description
Tourism demand is the foundation on which all tourism-related business decisions ultimately rest. This book introduces students, researchers and practitioners to the modern developments in advanced econometric methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis and illustrates these developments with actual tourism applications.

Author: Haiyan Song
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136353550
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 183

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Book Description
The phenomenal growth of both the world-wide tourism industry and academic interest in tourism over the last thirty years has generated great interest in tourism demand modelling and forecasting from both sectors. However, the tendency for researchers and practitioners engaged in quantitative causal tourism modelling and forecasting to run many regression equations and try to choose the 'best' model based on various parametric and non-parametric criteria has been widely criticised as failing to provide credible results. The aim of this book is to present the recent advances in econometric modelling methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis at a level that is accessible to non-specialists, and to illustrate these new developments with actual tourism applications. The book begins with an introduction to the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, before addressing the problems of traditional tourism demand modelling and forecasting, i.e. data mining and spurious regression due to common trends in the time series. Three chapters explore the general-to-specific approach to tourism demand modelling and forecasting, including the use of autoregressive distributed lag processes, cointegration analysis and error correction models. The time varying parameter model together with the use of the Kalman filter as an estimation method is a useful tool for examining the effects of regime shifts on tourism demand elasticities: this is explored next. The panel data approach is introduced as a way of overcoming the problem of estimation and forecasting biases caused by insufficient time series data. The book concludes by evaluating the empirical forecasting performance of the various models and putting forward some general conclusions.

Author: Robertico Croes
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
ISBN: 9783838349459
Category : Demand (Economic theory)
Languages : en
Pages : 216

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This is a study pertaining to the determinants of demand for small island destinations that attract international tourism. The study specifies a dynamic econometric model that reflects causal links between variables that activate short and long-term responses. The study developed a set of linear and double-log linear econometric models to identify and to quantify Aruba s international tourism demand from the United States, the Netherlands, and Venezuela. The inclusion of Venezuela as a developing country permitted the comparison between the behavior of tourism demand in relatively rich and poor countries. Understanding the demand dynamics of tourism can be an extremely valuable policymaking tool in countries with limited resources. The results of the study indicate the extent to which cross country behavior for tourism demand differs with respect to changes in effective prices and exchange rates. Such an enhanced understanding of the dynamics of demand should aid both policymakers and private sector managers in making more effective decisions regarding the supply and consumption of tourism services in small island destinations.

Author: Riaz Shareef
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 0857937138
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 349

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Book Description
This study forms an entirely new area of research on Small Island Tourism Economies (SITEs). It addresses the importance of uncertainty in monthly international tourist arrivals and country risk indicators to the macroeconomy. Conditional volatilities are estimated for international tourist arrivals, and an economic interpretation from the estimated results is provided. In achieving these two objectives, this work presents an extensive assessment of the important characteristics and the impact of tourism in SITEs in relation to their gross domestic product, balance of payments, employment and foreign direct investment, among other factors. This book is unique in giving emphasis to macroeconomic implications rather than an industry focus. The Economics of Small Island Tourism will appeal to academics at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels involved in environmental and tourism management as well as tourism economics.

Author: Shereen Adel Hassan Nosier
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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The thesis aims to identify the main factors that significantly affect tourism demand for Egypt. Both time series data and panel data are used to model and forecast tourism demand for Egypt from all origins, as well as three individual regions of origin, including Europe, Arab and the Americas. The methodological and econometric approaches introduced in this thesis proceed from the simple to the more complex structure to obtain more reliable estimation. First, we estimate tourism demand for Egypt using the co-integration and error correction (CI/ECM) approach based on a single equation, followed by using a system of equations approach over the period 1970-2009. All the estimated econometric methods, in addition to two univariate time series methods, are used to generate ex-post forecasting for all the models over the period 2005-2009. The preferred method is used in producing ex-ante forecasting of future tourism demand for Egypt for the period 2010-2014. Panel co-integration techniques are also used to estimate tourism demand models over the period 1980-2009. Finally, the causality relationship between tourism demand and its economic determinants is estimated based on panel data analysis, which may provide more guidance for policy makers in Egypt. The results indicate that tourism demand for Egypt is found to be co-integrated with its fundamental determinants at the 1% significance level, with a high adjustment speed toward the steady state equilibrium. The importance of long-run income for all tourists from different nationalities is affirmed; with an elastic demand for non-Arab tourists. Price is also an important determinant, with a different effect in each originating region. It takes less than unity value for all tourists, except the Arab. Tunisia is found to be the most significant alternative to Egypt, with a complementary effect for Europe and the Americas tourists, but substitutability effect for Arab tourists. Hotel capacity is a significant and positive factor for all nationalities, except the Americas. Globalization is important in all models; it has a positive effect for all non-Arab nationalities. Political instability has a significant and negative effect, with the most effect on the Americas. All the determinants Granger cause tourist arrivals in the long run, but globalization and hotel capacity are of great importance with a bidirectional effect with tourist arrivals. Ex-post forecasting results show that the CI/ECMs outperform the other time series methods and produce highly accurate forecasts. The number of arrivals and nights from all origin markets is likely to increase in absolute terms (2010-2014), but with slower growth than recent trend.

Author: Mike J. Stabler
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135194971
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 535

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"The publication of the second edition of The Economics of Tourism is a timely contribution to the theory and practice of tourism. The book retains both the rigour and relevance to the study of tourism as the original text which is considered to be the gold standard of tourism economics and is a must for those who study and undertake research into tourism from economic, environmental and social perspectives." Professor Haiyan Song, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, HK "This Second Edition is a "Wikipedia" of tourism economic research and strategic thinking and a must read for academic, corporate and policy thinkers. It builds on the earlier solid economic analysis of the sector to reflect contemporary geopolitical and socioeconomic issues. Going beyond a globalizing, poverty divided world to one where climate, population, resources and the green economy are dominant issues. We are proud of its genesis and continuing association with TTRI." Professor Geoffrey Lipman, University of Nottingham, UK

Author: Doris Chenguang Wu
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1000773442
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 327

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Book Description
This insightful and timely volume provides a succinct, expert-led introduction to the latest developments in advanced econometric methodologies in the context of tourism demand modelling and forecasting. Written by a plethora of worldwide experts on this topic, this book offers a comprehensive approach to tourism econometrics. Accurate demand forecasts are crucial to decision-making in the tourism industry and this book provides real-life tourism applications and the corresponding R code alongside theoretical foundations, in order to enhance understanding and practice amongst its readers. The methodologies introduced include general to specific modelling, cointegration, vector autoregression, time-varying parameter modelling, spatiotemporal econometric models, mixed-frequency forecasting, hybrid forecasting models, forecasting combination techniques, density forecasting, judgemental forecasting, scenario forecasting under crisis, and web-based tourism forecasting. Embellished with insightful figures and tables throughout, this book is an invaluable resource for those using advanced econometric methodologies in their studies and research, including both undergraduate and postgraduate students, researchers, and practitioners.

Author: François Vellas
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN: 1349240745
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384

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This is a text for students of international tourism at HND and undergraduate level. It looks at a number of aspects of tourism: market trends and forecasts, the economic impact of tourism, the role of marketing and finance, organisations and policies. International cases are used throughout the text.

Author: Douglas Frechtling
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113640242X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 279

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Book Description
'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to stay one step ahead of the competition. Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry. 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to: * plan a forecasting project * analyse time series and other information * select the appropriate forecasting model * use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results Ideal for marketing managers and strategic planners in business, transportation planners and economic policy makers in government who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it invaluable in assisting them to evaluate the validity and reliability of predictions and forecasts. Those engaged in analysing business trends will find it useful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.