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An Analysis of the Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Their Local and Large Scale Environment

An Analysis of the Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Their Local and Large Scale Environment PDF Author: Benjamin Alan Schenkel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric physics
Languages : en
Pages :

Book Description
ABSTRACT: The following study examines the spatiotemporal response of the local scale and large scale environment to tropical cyclone (TC) passage. The research presented here is broken up into three chapters that can be separated into two parts. Given that the analysis of the environmental response to TC passage heavily relies upon the use of atmospheric reanalysis datasets, the first half of this dissertation (Chapter 2) will examine the fidelity of TC intensity, position, and intensity life cycle within five reanalyses to determine what reanalyses can be used for when studying TCs. The results of this analysis show an underestimation of reanalysis TC intensity beyond what can be attributed to the coarse grid resolution of reanalyses. Moreover, the mean life cycle of normalized TC intensity within reanalyses exhibits an underestimation of pre-peak intensification rates as well as a delay in the timing of peak TC intensity relative to the Best Track. Significant discrepancies between reanalysis and Best-Track TC position are noted to exist particularly in regions that are observation deficient. Of the five reanalyses examined, the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and JMA 25-yr Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-25) have the most robust representation of TCs particularly within the North Atlantic (NATL) and Western North Pacific (WPAC). The second half of this study examines the local scale (Chapter 3) and large scale (Chapter 4) impacts of WPAC TCs upon their environment using storm-relative composites. On local scales, TCs are found to cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for at least a month following TC passage. The feedbacks from the SST cold wake combined with an initial net flux divergence of energy from the column yields a significant cooling and drying of the atmosphere that is strongest in the lower troposphere. Restoration of the environment is eventually achieved through a return of SSTs to climatology and a net flux convergence of potential energy aloft. The large scale response of the environment is primarily associated with an anomalous drying of the lower and middle tropospheric atmospheric environment to the west and southwest of the TC. The drying appears to be caused by upper level convergence resulting from the interaction of the TC outflow with its environment. On the western side of the TC, both the upper level flow from the anticyclone of the Asian monsoon and the increasing inertial stability with latitude due to the meridional gradient of planetary vorticity limit the ventilation to the west of the TC yielding upper level convergence and subsidence. The area of anomalous drying to the southwest is associated with the convergent upper level flow from the right exit region of the anticyclonically curved equatorward outflow jet of the TC. Lastly, the meridional transport of total energy by TCs results in a substantial cross hemispheric export of dry static energy nearly 4000 km southwards as result of the upper level outflow jet of the TC. The meridional dry static energy transports by TCs appear to comprise a substantial portion of the total atmospheric dry static energy transports at the equator during late summer and early fall. In their totality, these results suggest that TCs may significantly impact their environment both on long temporal scales and large spatial scales with potentially significant aggregate climate impacts in the WPAC given the high frequency of TC occurrence.

An Analysis of the Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Their Local and Large Scale Environment

An Analysis of the Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Their Local and Large Scale Environment PDF Author: Benjamin Alan Schenkel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric physics
Languages : en
Pages :

Book Description
ABSTRACT: The following study examines the spatiotemporal response of the local scale and large scale environment to tropical cyclone (TC) passage. The research presented here is broken up into three chapters that can be separated into two parts. Given that the analysis of the environmental response to TC passage heavily relies upon the use of atmospheric reanalysis datasets, the first half of this dissertation (Chapter 2) will examine the fidelity of TC intensity, position, and intensity life cycle within five reanalyses to determine what reanalyses can be used for when studying TCs. The results of this analysis show an underestimation of reanalysis TC intensity beyond what can be attributed to the coarse grid resolution of reanalyses. Moreover, the mean life cycle of normalized TC intensity within reanalyses exhibits an underestimation of pre-peak intensification rates as well as a delay in the timing of peak TC intensity relative to the Best Track. Significant discrepancies between reanalysis and Best-Track TC position are noted to exist particularly in regions that are observation deficient. Of the five reanalyses examined, the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and JMA 25-yr Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-25) have the most robust representation of TCs particularly within the North Atlantic (NATL) and Western North Pacific (WPAC). The second half of this study examines the local scale (Chapter 3) and large scale (Chapter 4) impacts of WPAC TCs upon their environment using storm-relative composites. On local scales, TCs are found to cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for at least a month following TC passage. The feedbacks from the SST cold wake combined with an initial net flux divergence of energy from the column yields a significant cooling and drying of the atmosphere that is strongest in the lower troposphere. Restoration of the environment is eventually achieved through a return of SSTs to climatology and a net flux convergence of potential energy aloft. The large scale response of the environment is primarily associated with an anomalous drying of the lower and middle tropospheric atmospheric environment to the west and southwest of the TC. The drying appears to be caused by upper level convergence resulting from the interaction of the TC outflow with its environment. On the western side of the TC, both the upper level flow from the anticyclone of the Asian monsoon and the increasing inertial stability with latitude due to the meridional gradient of planetary vorticity limit the ventilation to the west of the TC yielding upper level convergence and subsidence. The area of anomalous drying to the southwest is associated with the convergent upper level flow from the right exit region of the anticyclonically curved equatorward outflow jet of the TC. Lastly, the meridional transport of total energy by TCs results in a substantial cross hemispheric export of dry static energy nearly 4000 km southwards as result of the upper level outflow jet of the TC. The meridional dry static energy transports by TCs appear to comprise a substantial portion of the total atmospheric dry static energy transports at the equator during late summer and early fall. In their totality, these results suggest that TCs may significantly impact their environment both on long temporal scales and large spatial scales with potentially significant aggregate climate impacts in the WPAC given the high frequency of TC occurrence.

Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific and Their Effects on the Climate of the Western United States

Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific and Their Effects on the Climate of the Western United States PDF Author: Arthur Vern Douglas
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 94

Book Description


Modeling the Impacts of Interseasonal to Interannual Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific

Modeling the Impacts of Interseasonal to Interannual Climate Variations on Tropical Cyclone Formations in the Western North Pacific PDF Author: Stephanie A. Johnson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclones
Languages : en
Pages : 87

Book Description
We have analyzed the modulation of TC formations in the western North Pacific (WNP) during July-October by El Niño (EN), La Niña (LN), and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). This analysis was conducted from the perspective of several large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) that strongly influence tropical cyclone (TC) formation: sea surface temperature (SST), low level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and upper level divergence. We examined the variations in each LSEF associated with EN, LN, and MJO. We used composite LSEFs for EN, LN, and each of the eight MJO phases to force the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) statistical model for calculating TC formation probabilities. We then compared the resulting probabilities to actual formations to determine how accurately the model represented ENLN and MJO related variations in TC formations. The model based probabilities provide a realistic quantitative representation of how ENLN and MJO make TC formation more and less likely in the WNP. Our results should be useful in improving the education, training, and environmental situational awareness of TC forecasters. Our results also indicate that the NPS model has the potential to improve operational forecasting of TC formations in the WNP, if forced by skillful forecasts of the LSEFs.

Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones

Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones PDF Author: Johnny C. L. Chan
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814293482
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 445

Book Description
Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry

The Effects of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on the Southwestern United States

The Effects of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on the Southwestern United States PDF Author: Walter Smith
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclones
Languages : en
Pages : 264

Book Description


An Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific

An Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific PDF Author: Bing Fu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cyclone forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 168

Book Description
High-resolution satellite data are used to analyze 34 tropical storms in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the 2000 and 2001 storm seasons. Three scenarios: Tropical Cyclone Energy Dispersion (TCED), Synoptic Wavetrain/Mixed Rossby-Gravity wave (SWT/MRG) and Easterly Wave (EW) forcing, are identified as dominant synoptic-scale triggers for TC genesis. Among these 34 cases, 6 cases are associated with TCED, 11 cases are associated with SWTIMRG and 7 cases are associated with EW forcing. For the remaining cases, three presumable scenarios are proposed. Our analyses suggest that TCED has a close relationship with TC intensity and the background wind field. Not all mature TCs produce Rossby wavetrains at their wakes; and not all wavetrains lead to the formation of new TCs. The vertical divergence profile of the Rossby wavetrain has a baroclinic structure, while the vorticity profile shows an equivalent barotropic structure, penetrating from the surface to 200mb. The large-scale environmental flow plays an important role in determining whether a wavetrain can further develop into a TC. Evolution characteristics and vertical structures of easterly waves and synoptic-scale wavetrains and their roles in cyclogenesis are also investigated. Our results also show that tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) has a significant modulation on TC formation, especially in 2000.

El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate

El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate PDF Author: Michael J. McPhaden
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119548128
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 528

Book Description
Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change PDF Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187

Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Relationships Between Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific

Relationships Between Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific PDF Author: Naval Postgraduate School
Publisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781502972699
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 154

Book Description
In this work, we investigate the relationships between global warming and tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Our hypothesis is that global warming impacts on TC activity occur through changes in the large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) known to be important in determining the formation and intensity of TCs. The LSEFs on which we focus are: Sea surface temperature (SST) exceeding 26oC Weak vertical shear in horizontal winds Large positive absolute vorticity at low levels Mean upward motion High mid-level humidity We separate the data into weekly 5ox5o region averages. Using a least squares fit, we identify global warming signals in both the SST and vertical wind shear data across the WNP. These signals vary significantly on a 5ox5o scale. Logistic regression was used to determine the LSEFs/TC formation probability relationship. Linear regression was performed to determine the LSEF/ACE relationship. Through the two regression models, we determine that each of the LSEFs is important for both TC formation and ACE. Independent data from that used in the regression modeling was used to validate the models. Our results support our hypothesis, and indicate that global warming has increased TC numbers and intensities in the WNP via the LSEFs.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon PDF Author: Edward S. Sarachik
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781108445702
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0

Book Description
Many climatic extremes around the globe, such as severe droughts and floods, can be attributed to the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific sea surface, termed the El Niño or Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Advances in our understanding of ENSO, in which Edward S. Sarachik and Mark A. Cane have been key participants, have led to marked improvements in our ability to predict its development months or seasons, allowing adaptation to global impacts. This book introduces basic concepts and builds to more detailed theoretical treatments. Chapters on the structure and dynamics of the tropical ocean and atmosphere place ENSO in a broader observational and theoretical context. Chapters on ENSO prediction, past and future, and impacts, introduce broader implications of the phenomenon. This book provides an introduction to all aspects of this most important mode of global climate variability, for research workers and students of all levels in climate science, oceanography and related fields.