An Analysis of the Effect of War on the United States Stock Market PDF Download

Author: Kristina Simeunovic
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Stocks
Languages : en
Pages : 0

View

Book Description
While different scholars agree that war has a significant impact on the volatility in the United States stock market, they come to contradictory findings on the direction of this impact. The goal of this thesis is to analyze the effects that war has on the returns in U.S. financial markets. The empirical study employs quarterly prices of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index from October 1960 to September 2015 and applies a time series model in order to determine the effects on stock prices during U.S. war involvements overseas. Results show that even though the entry of United States into war has a positive effect on the quarterly returns from the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, different types of war can have an increasing or decreasing impact on DJIA real returns. This has important implications for investors today and in the future.

Author: Max Luca Wiegand
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3346093735
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59

View

Book Description
Bachelor Thesis from the year 2019 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1.3, University of Frankfurt (Main), language: English, abstract: In times of an increasingly digitalized world, behavioral changes in society do not spare high-ranking politicians and decision makers. In some cases, those changes in behavior can have unforeseen yet considerable consequences. By making use of the renowned event study methodology, this paper scrutinizes the impact of acting U.S. president Donald Trump’s Twitter activity on international stock markets. In particular, a select set of ten short messages posted in the context of the present US-China trade dispute is analyzed with regard to the U.S. American S&P 500, the Chinese Hang Seng Index (HSI) and the German DAX. Highly significant market reactions, both positive and negative, are found for the HSI and the examined markets’ aggregate, while Trump’s native market showed the least responsiveness to his tweets. Apart from that, the obtained results suggest a fairly rapid processing of new information and thus adjustment of prices. Ever since Donald Trump’s official inaugural address as the 45th president of the United States of America in January 2017, he has been cherishing a very polarizing and distinct way of leading the world’s largest economy compared to his more recent predecessors. That leadership style is not least characterized by his preferred yet – considering his position – rather uncommon way of communicating to the outside world, namely his extensive use of microblogging service Twitter for presidential announcements and commentaries of any nature. Amongst others, a particularly high activity can be observed in conjunction with the rising political and economic tensions between the United States and China that have been intensifying over Trump’s course of presidency. The dispute between the two economic superpowers – it comprises various topics such as the United States’ massive and long-standing trade deficit and alleged intellectual property theft – ultimately lead to the imposition of a series of mutual tariffs worth hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars. And while Trump regularly keeps his followers updated about his thoughts, claims and the statuses of trade negotiations, stock markets around the globe seem to react heavily to the developments of what is referred to as the US-China trade war. The question arises whether those unscheduled and seemingly impulsive short messages can be a causal explanation for recent stock market movements.

Author: Alberto Alesina
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521436205
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 302

View

Book Description
This book develops an integrated approach to understanding the American economy and national elections. Economic policy is generally seen as the result of a compromise between the President and Congress. Because Democrats and Republicans usually maintain polarized preferences on policy, middle-of-the-road voters seek to balance the President by reinforcing in Congress the party not holding the White House. This balancing leads, always, to relatively moderate policies and, frequently, to divided government. The authors first outline the rational partisan business cycle, where Republican administrations begin with recession, and Democratic administrations with expansions, and next the midterm cycle, where the President's party loses votes in the mid-term congressional election. The book argues that both cycles are the result of uncertainty about the outcome of presidential elections. Other topics covered include retrospective voting on the economy, coat-tails, and incumbency advantage. A final chapter shows how the analysis sheds light on the economies and political processes of other industrial democracies.

Author: Stephen Broadberry
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139448358
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 363

View

Book Description
This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.

Author: Jeremy J. Siegel
Publisher: Irwin Professional Publishing
ISBN: 9781556238048
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 348

View

Book Description
"It's been called the world's greatest casino - but the stock market is far more than a game of chance. Despite the short-term instability of the market, stocks have proven to be better investments than bonds over the long run. Financial expert Jeremy Siegel gives shrewd and practical advice on building wealth through buying stocks in this thorough analysis of the market and the factors that affect it. If you're about to invest, this is the guide you need to understand the stock market as an attractive option." "Base your investment choices on a clear understanding of why, and not just how, the market reacts to economic forces, Siegel urges. His unique and substantive guide gives investors essential background on the stock market by explaining the historical returns on stocks and bonds over the past two centuries - and discusses the risk and return profile on financial assets that makes stocks safer and more productive long-term investments." "Along with practical tips and guidelines, this complete guide includes a detailed description of market performances since 1802 - including nearly 100 original charts and graphs - providing a unique perspective on returns and market fluctuations; an examination of the economic, political, and fiscal changes that affect the stock market, such as deficits, taxes, inflation - even war; and an analysis of long-term stock opportunities in foreign markets - a timely topic for today's investors." "You'll discover how to calculate the effects of calendar anomalies, inflation, taxes, and many other factors on market volatility - and how to structure your portfolio accordingly. (Insights from the stock crashes of October 1929 and 1987 help investors understand why stock risks have changed over time.) Siegel's thorough analysis not only covers stock returns - including the "nifty fifty," market capitalization, and after-tax returns - but explains why the market moves as it does and offers an idea of what to expect from the future."--BOOK JACKET.Title Summary field provided by Blackwell North America, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Author: Leon Levy
Publisher: PublicAffairs
ISBN: 0786730153
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 237

View

Book Description
As stock prices and investor confidence have collapsed in the wake of Enron, WorldCom, and the dot-com crash, people want to know how this happened and how to make sense of the uncertain times to come. Into the breach comes one of Wall Street's legendary investors, Leon Levy, to explain why the market so often confounds us, and why those who ought to understand it tend to get chewed up and spat out. Levy, who pioneered many of the innovations and investment instruments that we now take for granted, has prospered in every market for the past fifty years, particularly in today's bear market. In The Mind of Wall Street he recounts stories of his successes and failures to illustrate how investor psychology and willful self-deception so often play critical roles in the process. Like his peers George Soros and Warren Buffett, Levy takes a long and broad view of the rhythms of the markets and the economy. He also offers a provocative analysis of the spectacular Internet bubble, showing that the market has not yet completely recovered from its bout of "irrational exuberance." The Mind of Wall Street is essential reading for all of us, whether we are active traders or simply modest contributors to our 401(k) plans, as volatile and unnerving markets come to define so much of our net worth.

Author: Dipak Kumar Kole
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9819726115
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 728

View

Book Description

Author: Seungho Jung
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1557759677
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36

View

Book Description
We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.

Author: Merritt B. Fox
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 023154393X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 612

View

Book Description
The U.S. stock market has been transformed over the last twenty-five years. Once a market in which human beings traded at human speeds, it is now an electronic market pervaded by algorithmic trading, conducted at speeds nearing that of light. High-frequency traders participate in a large portion of all transactions, and a significant minority of all trade occurs on alternative trading systems known as “dark pools.” These developments have been widely criticized, but there is no consensus on the best regulatory response to these dramatic changes. The New Stock Market offers a comprehensive new look at how these markets work, how they fail, and how they should be regulated. Merritt B. Fox, Lawrence R. Glosten, and Gabriel V. Rauterberg describe stock markets’ institutions and regulatory architecture. They draw on the informational paradigm of microstructure economics to highlight the crucial role of information asymmetries and adverse selection in explaining market behavior, while examining a wide variety of developments in market practices and participants. The result is a compelling account of the stock market’s regulatory framework, fundamental institutions, and economic dynamics, combined with an assessment of its various controversies. The New Stock Market covers a wide range of issues including the practices of high-frequency traders, insider trading, manipulation, short selling, broker-dealer practices, and trading venue fees and rebates. The book illuminates both the existing regulatory structure of our equity trading markets and how we can improve it.

Author: Carl Chiarella
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135984506
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 513

View

Book Description
This important new book from a group of Keynesian, but nonetheless technically-oriented economists explores one of the dominant paradigms in financial economics: the ‘intertemporal general equilibrium approach’.