Ambiguity, precision and choice : a fuzzy trace theory analysis of framing effects in decision making under uncertainty (PHD). PDF Download

Author: John Vincent Fulginiti
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Jonathan Charles Corbin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 246

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The three chapters in this dissertation discuss and test fuzzy-trace theory's account of riskychoice framing effects. This account predicts that risky-choice framing effects occur because of reliance on meaningful, categorical gist representations as opposed to rote, verbatim representations. The second chapter reviews fuzzy-trace theory's account of decision making from a developmental and memory perspective. This chapter covers the main principles of fuzzy-trace theory, including independent verbatim and gist representations, the development of these memory processes, task calibration, and the fuzzy-processing preference. This chapter also presents evidence that supports increasing reliance on gist with expertise, by covering work that demonstrated larger framing effects among intelligence agents as compared to college students. Finally, the chapter makes theoretical and empirical connections between the role of gist in framing and its role in false memory. The third chapter tests mechanisms hypothesized to underlie within-subject risky-choice framing effects. Within-subject framing effects occur when an individual demonstrates a preference reversal across both gain and loss frames. This chapter examines the role of the goal of cognitive consistency in framing, discovering that activation of this goal encourages subjects to remain more consistent with the initially presented frame. Second, this chapter shows that higher numeracy predicts smaller within-subject framing i whereas higher categorical gist thinking predicts larger framing effects, despite the fact that both measures correlate positively with each other. Finally, we show how true and false memory relate to within-subject framing, with acceptance of targets (representing individual differences in verbatim processing) supporting resistance to framing and false memory (representing individual differences in gist-based "false" memory) supporting larger framing effects. The fourth chapter compares traditional dual-process theories' predictions to those of fuzzy-trace theory regarding the roles of decision confidence and memory for numerical problem information in predicting between-subject framing effects. Whereas traditional dual-process theories predict that framing effects occur because of reliance on fast, associative processes, fuzzy-trace theory predicts -and results confirm-- that framing effects are due to meaningful gist-based intuition. ii.

Author:
Publisher:
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Category : Dissertations, Academic
Languages : en
Pages : 776

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Dissertation abstracts
Languages : en
Pages : 800

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Author: Colin M. Dilley
Publisher:
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Petr Ekel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119534925
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368

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Book Description
A guide to the various models and methods to multicriteria decision-making in conditions of uncertainty presented in a systematic approach Multicriteria Decision-Making under Conditions of Uncertainty presents approaches that help to answer the fundamental questions at the center of all decision-making problems: "What to do?" and "How to do it?" The book explores methods of representing and handling diverse manifestations of the uncertainty factor and a multicriteria nature of problems that can arise in system design, planning, operation, and control. The authors—noted experts on the topic—and their book covers essential questions, including notions and fundamental concepts of fuzzy sets, models and methods of multiobjective as well as multiattribute decision-making, the classical approach to dealing with uncertainty of information and its generalization for analyzing multicriteria problems in condition of uncertainty, and more. This comprehensive book contains information on "harmonious solutions" in multiobjective problem-solving (analyzing “i>X, F> models), construction and analysis of “i>X, R/i” models, results aimed at generating robust solutions in analyzing multicriteria problems under uncertainty, and more. In addition, the book includes illustrative examples of various applications, including real-world case studies related to the authors’ various industrial projects. This important resource: Explains the design and processing aspect of fuzzy sets, including construction of membership functions, fuzzy numbers, fuzzy relations, aggregation operations, and fuzzy sets transformations Describes models of multiobjective decision-making (“i>X. M/i” models), their analysis on the basis of using the Bellman-Zadeh approach to decision-making in a fuzzy environment, and their diverse applications, including multicriteria allocation of resources Investigates models of multiattribute decision-making (“i>X, R/i” models) and their analysis on the basis of the construction and processing of fuzzy preference relations as well as demonstrating their applications to solve diverse classes of multiattribute problems Explores notions of payoff matrices and fuzzy-set-based generalization and modification of the classic approach to decision-making under conditions of uncertainty to generate robust solutions in analyzing multicriteria problems Written for students, researchers and practitioners in disciplines in which decision-making is of paramount relevance, Multicriteria Decision-Making under Conditions of Uncertainty presents a systematic and current approach that encompasses a range of models and methods as well as new applications.

Author: Chip Heath
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Ambiguity
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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Author: Janusz Kacprzyk
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fuzzy sets
Languages : en
Pages : 418

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Author: Yitong Wang
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781124791951
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 108

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Book Description
This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay explores how to counteract the uncertainty effect bias by appropriately manipulating either the anchoring process or the adjustment process involved in the bias. First, I examine how providing an anchor prior to judging the value of the lottery affects individuals' judgments, and find that anchoring on the worst outcome counteracts the uncertainty effect. Then I investigate if omitting information about the probability of the outcomes to create an ambiguous lottery affects individuals' judgments, and find that this is not sufficient to counteract the uncertainty effect. Finally, I explore if introducing additional cognitive load dampens over-adjustment and thus affect individuals' judgments, and find that additional cognitive load is able to counteract the uncertainty effect bias. In an intertemporal choice context, the second essay investigates decision makers' subjective perception of the temporal duration between now and the time they would receive future payments. I show that participants' subjective perceptions of temporal duration are not independent of the outcome magnitudes, where larger monetary outcomes are associated with shorter subjective time perception (experiments 1 & 2). Furthermore, this difference in temporal perception can help us explain the magnitude effect. My results replicate the magnitude effect when taking only objective time into account but show a constant discount rate when taking subjective time perception into account (experiment 3). The third essay investigates the impacts of an ambiguous time on decision making over time. In the first experiment, employing hypothetical scenarios and a between-subjects design, I found that in some situations, decision makers may discount more when facing an ambiguous time delay than facing the end of the ambiguous span. Furthermore, a reversed magnitude effect, the gain/loss asymmetry, and the short term/long term asymmetry phenomenon were observed in experiment 1. In experiment 2, I tested the effects we found in experiment 1 with real payoffs. First, the observed effect that people over-discount an outcome with an ambiguous realizing time was found only in individual level data analyses. Second, I found that the short term/long term asymmetry appeared in all cases across different conditions and experiment design.

Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521284141
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 574

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Book Description
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.