Ambiguity and Competitive Decision Making PDF Download

Author: Robin M. Hogarth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Decision-making
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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Book Description

Author: Robin M. Hogarth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Book Description
Contrary to most formal models of decision making under risk and uncertainty that are built on the basis of prescriptive behavioral principles or axioms, this paper derives a descriptive model of decision making under ambiguity based on principles of behavior, i.e., principles that describe how people behave as opposed to how they should behave. The model assumes that people evaluate the impact of ambiguous probabilities by first anchoring on a given value of the unknown probability and then adjusting this by the net effect of imagining or trying out other values the probability could take. The mental simulation process incorporates giving differential weight to the ranges of probability values above and below the anchor where such weight reflects individual and situational variables. In particular, the assumption that people are cautious as opposed to reckless in making decisions, leads to attributing more weight to possible values of probabilities below the anchor when considering potential gains, and the reverse when faced with potential losses. (kr).

Author: Nikolaos Zahariadis
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
ISBN: 9781589012363
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 212

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Book Description
Zahariadis offers a theory that explains policymaking when "ambiguity" is present—a state in which there are many ways, often irreconcilable, of thinking about an issue. Expanding and extending John Kingdon's influential "multiple streams" model that explains agenda setting, Zahariadis argues that manipulation, the bending of ideas, process, and beliefs to get what you want out of the policy process, is the key to understanding the dynamics of policymaking in conditions of ambiguity. He takes one of the major theories of public policy to the next step in three different ways: he extends it to a different form of government (parliamentary democracies, where Kingdon looked only at what he called the United States's presidential "organized anarchy" form of government); he examines the entire policy formation process, not just agenda setting; and he applies it to foreign as well as domestic policy. This book combines theory with cases to illuminate policymaking in a variety of modern democracies. The cases cover economic policymaking in Britain, France, and Germany, foreign policymaking in Greece, all compared to the U.S. (where the model was first developed), and an innovative computer simulation of the policy process.

Author: Adam, Frederic
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1599048442
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 1019

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Book Description
As effective organizational decision making is a major factor in a company's success, a comprehensive account of current available research on the core concepts of the decision support agenda is in high demand by academicians and professionals. Through 110 authoritative contributions by over 160 of the world's leading experts the Encyclopedia of Decision Making and Decision Support Technologies presents a critical mass of research on the most up-to-date research on human and computer support of managerial decision making, including discussion on support of operational, tactical, and strategic decisions, human vs. computer system support structure, individual and group decision making, and multi-criteria decision making.

Author: Frank A. Heller
Publisher: CUP Archive
ISBN: 9780521403702
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272

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Book Description

Author: Diederik Aerts
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814405302
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 366

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Book Description
The present volume is part of the ‘Worldviews, Science and Us’ series of proceedings. It contains selected contributions on the subject of bridging knowledge and its implications for our perspectives of the world. This volume also represents the proceedings of the interdisciplinary stream of the international workshop (Part 1) Times of Entanglement, 21-22 September 2010 at the Minsheng Art Museum in Shanghai, People's Republic of China in the context of the Shanghai World Expo 2010 and, related cutting-edge investigations in the quantum paradigm from discussion panels organized by the Leo Apostel Center for Interdisciplinary studies within the framework of the ‘Research on the Construction of Integrating Worldviews’ research community set up by the Flanders Fund for Scientific Research. Further information about this research community and a full list of the associated international research centers can be found at www.vub.ac.be/CLEA/res/worldviews/.

Author: Gideon Keren
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118468392
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 1056

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Book Description
A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes

Author: Reimut Zohlnh©œfer
Publisher: ECPR Press
ISBN: 9781785521256
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 298

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Book Description
Policy issues have grown ever more complex and politically more contestable. So governments in advanced democracies often do not understand the problems they have to deal with and do not know how to solve them. Thus, rational problem-solving models are highly unconvincing. Conversely, the multiple streams framework starts out from these conditions, which has led to increasing interest in it. This volume brings together a group of international scholars to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the framework from different angles. It explores systematically and empirically the framework's potential in different national contexts and in policy areas from climate change and foreign policy to healthcare and the welfare state.

Author: David Hardman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470871776
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 395

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Book Description
The first international handbook to bring the areas of reasoning,judgment and decision making together, now in paperback format. The book brings three of the important topics of thinkingtogether - reasoning, judgment and decision making â?? anddiscusses key issues in each area. The studies described range fromthose that are purely laboratory based to those that involveexperts making real world judgments, in areas such as medical andlegal decision making and political and economic forecasting. * International collection of original chapters by leadingresearchers in the field * Several chapters contain important new theoreticalperspectives * Paperback version is more affordable for individualresearchers

Author: Hunter, M. Gordon
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1605666785
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 2750

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Book Description
"This 4-volume set provides a compendium of comprehensive advanced research articles written by an international collaboration of experts involved with the strategic use of information systems"--Provided by publisher.