Alternative Models of Expectations Formation PDF Download

Author: Ron Pepper
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 378

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Author: D. Willson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226531929
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 184

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Book Description
A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.

Author: Richard Thomas Curtin
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107004691
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 365

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Book Description
Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author: George W. Evans
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400824265
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 440

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Book Description
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

Author: Mauro Gallegati
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128039035
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 276

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Book Description
Introduction to Agent-Based Economics describes the principal elements of agent-based computational economics (ACE). It illustrates ACE’s theoretical foundations, which are rooted in the application of the concept of complexity to the social sciences, and it depicts its growth and development from a non-linear out-of-equilibrium approach to a state-of-the-art agent-based macroeconomics. The book helps readers gain a better understanding of the limits and perspectives of the ACE models and their capacity to reproduce economic phenomena and empirical patterns. Reviews the literature of agent-based computational economics Analyzes approaches to agents’ expectations Covers one of the few large macroeconomic agent-based models, the Modellaccio Illustrates both analytical and computational methodologies for producing tractable solutions of macro ACE models Describes diffusion and amplification mechanisms Depicts macroeconomic experiments related to ACE implementations

Author: Mr.Olivier Coibion
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475533861
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55

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Book Description
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.

Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319972235
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 205

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Book Description
Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? This important book offers an in-depth treatment of this question from a point of view not covered in existing works on time-series econometrics and forecasting. Clements presents the nature of survey data, addresses some of the difficulties posed by the way in which survey expectations are elicited and considers the evaluation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations.

Author: Robert E. Lucas
Publisher: U of Minnesota Press
ISBN: 1452908281
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 335

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Book Description
Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.