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Author: Shigeru Fujita (Economist) Publisher: ISBN: Category : Demographic transition Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and declining trends in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search/matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force accounts for 40 percent or more of the declines in the real interest rate observed between the 1980s and 2000s in Japan. We also examine the impacts of other long-term developments such as a slowdown of TFP growth and higher shares of female and non-regular workers.
Author: Shigeru Fujita (Economist) Publisher: ISBN: Category : Demographic transition Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
This paper explores a causal link between aging of the labor force and declining trends in the real interest rate in Japan. We develop a search/matching model that features heterogeneous workers with respect to their ages and firm-specific skills. Using the model, we examine the long-run implications of the sharp drop in labor force entry in the 1970s. We show that the changes in the demographic structure induce significant low-frequency movements in per capita consumption growth and the real interest rate. The model suggests that aging of the labor force accounts for 40 percent or more of the declines in the real interest rate observed between the 1980s and 2000s in Japan. We also examine the impacts of other long-term developments such as a slowdown of TFP growth and higher shares of female and non-regular workers.
Author: Mr.Fei Han Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484396235 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Author: Robert Dekle Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1134793138 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 99
Book Description
Japan's savings are among the highest in the world, and these high rates have played a valuable role throughout the post-war period. However, over the next several decades, Japan's population will be ageing rapidly. Will this lower Japanese savings rates? Using up-to-date financial and demographical data, author Robert Dekle finds that the answer to this question is an emphatic 'yes'. Understanding Japanese Saving holds key lessons for Western nations undergoing similar demographic transformations as well as developing countries looking to establish public savings institutions.
Author: Mr.Derek Anderson Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498392121 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 23
Book Description
Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF’s Global Integrated Fiscal and Monetary Model (GIMF) and find substantial deflationary pressures from aging, mainly from declining growth and falling land prices. Dissaving by the elderly makes matters worse as it leads to real exchange rate appreciation from the repatriation of foreign assets. The deflationary effects from aging are magnified by the large fiscal consolidation need. Many of these factors will beset other advanced countries as well, but we find that deflation risk from aging is not inevitable as ambitious structural reforms and an aggressive monetary policy reaction can provide the offset.
Author: Charles Goodhart Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030426572 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 260
Book Description
This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.
Author: Publisher: Psychology Press ISBN: 9780415129763 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 87
Book Description
"Using up-to-date financial and demographical data, Robert Dekle finds that the answer to this question is an emphatic "yes." The aging of the population currently under way will steadily lower Japan's savings rate from 30 percent of GDP today to 19 percent of GDP in 2040, while Japan's total investment rate will decline from 28 percent of GDP today to about 22 percent of GDP in 2040. Given the more rapid decline in total saving, Japan's current account will steadily narrow from its current level and turn to deficit around 2015." "Understanding Japanese Saving holds key lessons for Western nations undergoing similar demographic transformations as well as for developing countries looking to establish public savings institutions."--BOOK JACKET.
Author: Mr.Tim Callen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 158906187X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 282
Book Description
Japan’s weak economic performance in the 1990s has had implications not only for its own people, but for the world economy more generally, given Japan’s importance as a trading partner and supplier of capital. Therefore, it is essential that Japan unlock its growth potential. The IMF has worked with the Japanese authorities to identify the policies needed to bring Japan’s economy out of its recent slump. This book contributes to this ongoing debate, whose major topics include the need for an integrated policy strategy based on the decisive restructuring of the banking and corporate sectors, combined with macroeconomic policies designed to bring an end to deflation.
Author: Shigeru Fujita (Economist)
Author: Shigeru Fujita (Economist)
Author: Shigeru Fujita
Author: Mr.Fei Han
Author: Nao Sudo
Author: Robert Dekle
Author: Mr.Derek Anderson
Author: Mr.Fei Han
Author: Charles Goodhart
Author: 
Author: Mr.Tim Callen