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Author: Ajay Chhibber Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Africa Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
Is there a link between devaluation and high inflation? It depends on accompanying monetary and fiscal policies and the presence of parallel markets. An open capital account would curtail fiscal profligacy and provide price stability without jeopardizing growth.
Author: Ajay Chhibber Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Africa Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
Is there a link between devaluation and high inflation? It depends on accompanying monetary and fiscal policies and the presence of parallel markets. An open capital account would curtail fiscal profligacy and provide price stability without jeopardizing growth.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451953658 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 22
Book Description
Since the mid-1970s the annual inflation rate in Africa has averaged more than 15 percent, with many countries experiencing rates of 20 percent or more. Inflation rates of this magnitude have significant adverse effects on the financial sectors of African countries, particularly in the context of fixed nominal interest rates. Econometric analysis points strongly to monetary expansion as a major cause of inflation in African countries generally. Exchange rate depreciation is also associated with higher inflation, although in some countries the domestic currency was depreciated to offset the effects of recent inflation, rather than being a cause of inflation.
Author: Mr.Emre Alper Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 147556824X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
This paper analyzes food inflation trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2000 to 2016 using two novel datasets of disaggregated CPI baskets. Average food inflation is higher, more volatile, and similarly persistent as non-food non-fuel (NF/NF) inflation, especially in low-income countries (LICs) in SSA. We find evidence that food inflation became less persistent from 2009 onwards, related to recent improvements in monetary policy frameworks. We also find that high food prices are driven mainly by non-tradable food in SSA and there is incomplete pass-through from world food and fuel prices and exchange rates to domestic food prices. Taken together, these finding suggest that central banks in low-income countries with high and persistent food inflation should continue to pay attention to headline inflation to anchor inflation expectations. Other policy levers include reducing tariffs and improving storage and transport infrastructure to reduce food pressures.
Author: Anh D. M. Nguyen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513583018 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA’s rapid growth, its integration with the global economy, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among economies, as well as the role of regional and global demand and inflationary spillovers. We find that in the past 25 years, the main drivers of inflation have been domestic supply shocks and shocks to exchange rate and monetary variables; but that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks to inflation has fallen. Domestic demand pressures as well as global shocks, and particularly shocks to output, however, have played a larger role in driving inflation over the last decade. We also show that country characteristics matter—the extent of oil and food imports, vulnerability to weather shocks, economic importance of agriculture, trade openness and policy regime, among others, help in explaining the role of shocks.
Author: International Monetary Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 25
Book Description
Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery has been abruptly interrupted. Last year, activity finally bounced back, lifting GDP growth in 2021 to 4.7 percent. But growth in 2022 is expected to slow sharply by more than 1 percentage point to 3.6 percent, as a worldwide slowdown, tighter global financial conditions, and a dramatic pickup in global inflation spill into a region already wearied by an ongoing series of shocks. Rising food and energy prices are impacting the region’s most vulnerable, and public debt and inflation are at levels not seen in decades. Against this backdrop, and with limited options, many countries find themselves pushed closer to the edge. The near-term outlook is extremely uncertain as the region’s prospects are tied to developments in the global economy and with a number of countries facing difficult sociopolitical and security situations at home. Within this challenging environment, policymakers must confront immediate socioeconomic crises as they arise, while also endeavoring to reduce vulnerabilities to future shocks, building resilience. Ultimately, however, the region’s safety and prosperity will require high-quality growth and the implementation of policies that will set the stage for a sustainable recovery, helping countries move away from the edge.
Author: Gunnar Jonsson Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
A number of industrial countries have adopted a framework for monetary policy that has become known as Inflation Targeting in the 1990s.2 In most cases, inflation targeting was introduced after unsuccessful attempts to target some monetary aggregate (e.g., Canada) or the nominal exchange rate (e.g., United Kingdom and Sweden). Its increasing popularity also has been nourished by a growing consensus among policy-makers, economists, and the public in general that there is no long-term trade-off between inflation and output, and that price stability fosters economic growth. For similar reasons, several emerging market economies have recently adopted, or indicated that they intend to adopt, inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework.3
Author: Evangelos A. Calamitsis Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
In many respects, sub-Saharan Africa today is quite different from what it was in the early 1980s. For the first time in a generation, there is clear evidence of economic progress in an increasing number of countries in the region. Thus, since 1994 aggregate economic performance has been improving, reflecting the implementation of appropriate policies, often in the context of comprehensive adjustment and reform programs supported by the IMF and the World Bank. Sound fiscal and monetary policies have led to a substantial reduction of domestic and external financial imbalances. At the same time, important structural reforms have contributed to alleviating distortions and improving overall economic efficiency.2 More and more countries in the region are also giving increasing attention to achieving high-quality growth by placing higher priority on public spending on health care, education, and other basic social services. Moreover, the implementation of these economic policies has been accompanied by political liberalization and a movement toward participatory forms of government that foster a consensus encompassing the state and civil society.
Author: Jongrim Ha Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464813760 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 513
Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Author: Ajay Chhibber
Author: Ajay Chhibber
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: P. H. Spies
Author: Mr.Emre Alper
Author: Anh D. M. Nguyen
Author: Oludele Akinloye Akinboade
Author: International Monetary
Author: Gunnar Jonsson
Author: Evangelos A. Calamitsis
Author: Jongrim Ha