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Author: Richard Finlay Publisher: ISBN: Category : Government securities Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
"We use data on coupon-bearing Australian Government bonds and overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to estimate risk-free zero-coupon yield and forward curves for Australia from 1992 to 2007. These curves, and analysts? forecasts of future interest rates, are then used to fit an affine term structure model to Australian interest rates, with the aim of decomposing forward rates into expected future overnight cash rates plus term premia. The expected future short rates derived from the model are on average unbiased, fluctuating around the average of actual observed short rates. Since the adoption of inflation targeting and the entrenchment of low and stable inflation expectations, term premia appear to have declined in levels and displayed smaller fluctuations in response to economic shocks. This suggests that the market has become less uncertain about the path of future interest rates. Towards the end of the sample period, term premia have been negative, suggesting that investors may have been willing to pay a premium for Commonwealth Government securities. Due to the complexity of the model and the difficulty of calibrating it to data, the results should not be interpreted too precisely. Nevertheless, the model does provide a potentially useful decomposition of recent changes in the expected path of interest rates and term premia."--Reserve Bank of Australia web site.
Author: Richard Finlay Publisher: ISBN: Category : Government securities Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
"We use data on coupon-bearing Australian Government bonds and overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to estimate risk-free zero-coupon yield and forward curves for Australia from 1992 to 2007. These curves, and analysts? forecasts of future interest rates, are then used to fit an affine term structure model to Australian interest rates, with the aim of decomposing forward rates into expected future overnight cash rates plus term premia. The expected future short rates derived from the model are on average unbiased, fluctuating around the average of actual observed short rates. Since the adoption of inflation targeting and the entrenchment of low and stable inflation expectations, term premia appear to have declined in levels and displayed smaller fluctuations in response to economic shocks. This suggests that the market has become less uncertain about the path of future interest rates. Towards the end of the sample period, term premia have been negative, suggesting that investors may have been willing to pay a premium for Commonwealth Government securities. Due to the complexity of the model and the difficulty of calibrating it to data, the results should not be interpreted too precisely. Nevertheless, the model does provide a potentially useful decomposition of recent changes in the expected path of interest rates and term premia."--Reserve Bank of Australia web site.
Author: Ferre De Graeve Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
We estimate a medium-scale macro-finance DSGE model of the term structure. By expanding the macro part of macro-finance models, historical fluctuations in US bond yields turn out to be largely consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. This stands in contrast to extant macro-finance models and suggests that their - small-scale or non-structural - perspective on the macroeconomy mutes expectations, thereby underestimating the expectations hypothesis' potential. Out-of-sample forecasts are competitive with more flexible models of the yield curve. We interpret various episodes through the lens of the model. The inflation hike in the mid-seventies was predominantly the result of markup shocks to wages and prices, while monetary policy's commitment to fighting inflation was largely credible. Although the Fed succeeded in bringing down inflation in the early eighties, it had less success in lowering inflation expectations. The model suggests the mid 2000 non-response of long rates to monetary policy is a to a large extent the logical consequence of the Fed's response to demand-type shocks hitting the economy. Finally, the paper investigates which structural shocks cause the yield curve to contain information about future growth.
Author: Anna Cieslak Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 53
Book Description
We decompose conditional volatilities of US Treasury yields into components due to short-rate expectations and term premia. To this end, we propose a novel no-arbitrage model which we estimate with extensive second-moment data. Short-rate expectations become more volatile than premia before recessions and during asset market distress. The correlation between shocks to premia and expectations is close to zero on average and varies with stance of monetary policy. While Treasuries are nearly unexposed to variance shocks, investors pay a large premium for hedging variance risk with derivatives. We illustrate the distinct dynamics of those yield volatility components during and after the financial crisis.
Author: M. A. H. Dempster Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1482299674 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 637
Book Description
High-Performance Computing (HPC) delivers higher computational performance to solve problems in science, engineering and finance. There are various HPC resources available for different needs, ranging from cloud computing– that can be used without much expertise and expense – to more tailored hardware, such as Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) or D-Wave’s quantum computer systems. High-Performance Computing in Finance is the first book that provides a state-of-the-art introduction to HPC for finance, capturing both academically and practically relevant problems.
Author: Mr.Gianni De Nicolo Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451857608 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
This paper documents global trends in bank activity, consolidation, internationalization, and financial firm conglomeration, and explores the extent to which financial firm risk and systemic risk potential in banking are related to consolidation and conglomeration. We find that while there is a substantial upward trend in conglomeration globally, consolidation and internationalization exhibit uneven patterns across world regions. Trends in consolidation and conglomeration indicate increased risk profiles for large, conglomerate financial firms, and higher levels of systemic risk potential for more concentrated banking systems. We outline research directions aimed at explaining why bank consolidation and conglomeration do not necessarily yield either safer financial firms or more resilient banking systems.
Author: Andrew C. Harvey Publisher: Financial Times/Prentice Hall ISBN: 9780745012001 Category : Time-series analysis Languages : en Pages : 308
Book Description
A companion volume to The Econometric Analysis of Time series, this book focuses on the estimation, testing and specification of dynamic models which are not based on any behavioural theory. It covers univariate and multivariate time series and emphasizes autoregressive moving-average processes.
Author: Richard Finlay
Author: Richard Finlay
Author: David Kim
Author: Frederick Archibald Bloch
Author: Ferre De Graeve
Author: Anna Cieslak
Author: 
Author: M. A. H. Dempster
Author: Mr.Gianni De Nicolo
Author: Vasant Naik
Author: Andrew C. Harvey