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Author: Wayne Hart Publisher: ISBN: Category : Alpine Fault (N.Z.) Languages : en Pages : 317
Book Description
This thesis will inform effective decision making in a natural disaster environment by combining positivist research data fully describing past disaster events, constructed into models that may assist in forecasting outcomes of future disaster events.Transformation ModellingTypically, a vast amount of situational data from a particular natural disaster is collected and stored during the time band of the event. It is collected by participants such as emergency responders, government agencies and researchers.The consequences of most natural disasters are the outputs arising from multiple inputs to a natural and anthropological system that are related through complex relationships. In this study these inputs, outputs and relationships are used to create transformation models. This study provides an original approach to physical data and information management, building initial representation models, and creating transformation models to assist decision making,The thesis introduces a new dimensionless parameter that models relative human behaviour during pre-event and event time bands when potentially; behavioural responses are shown to affect the forecast outcomes based on measured situational data.The internationally standardised tool for managing a risk or hazard is a two dimensional matrix of historical event likelihood, and the magnitude of consequences. Extending the traditional two-dimensional matrix to a three-dimensional matrix that includes a participant behavioural parameter is shown to inform more informative forecasting of disaster outcomes.The StudyThe study involves a research programme of one foundation study and three situational studies in montane environments that introduce new model approaches to risk management. The essential element of building this model is the use of a well posed, problem building principles to enable the creation of a structurally robust and solvable mathematical model.The foundation study researches the historical development of data modelling and finds a structured set of seven archetypal forms of models from a catalogue of 2968 general models. These archetypal forms of models are applied to three different situational studies. The first situational study investigates the Gutenberg-Richter Equation as a reliable model for forecasting the likelihood of long-range seismic trends in the Snowy Mountain Region and the overlayed effects of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) amongst the 52 water dams in the greater Snowy Mountains Region. The study uses transformation models, to show how traditional investigations have over-reported the frequency and magnitude of RIS in this region. This new modelling approach provides a much improved RIS evaluation criteria, as well a surprising finding that reservoirs significantly reduce the risk of serious damage and harm from seismic events when they do, occasionally, occur.The second situational study looks at the second major earthquake in the Canterbury, New Zealand sequence of 2010-11. This second of four strong and major earthquakes caused massive damage, 185 fatalities, and 2,000 moderate to serious injuries, mostly in the city of Christchurch. This study takes a new approach to the transformation modelling of damage using the attenuation of seismic energy to develop a new quantitative model called here the Specific Surface Energy (SSE). This new mathematical model now provides a quantitative definition based on measured seismic data for the historic Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale of seismic intensity. The study identifies several new seismic intensity anomalies that show significant geological features beyond the well-known Bexley liquefaction anomaly may lead to very different risks of damage and consequences. These outcomes may have significant consequences implications for the next major event on the NZ Alpine Fault.The third situational study develops a new approach to studying and forecasting human behaviour in montane natural hazard situations by investigating recreational visitor and resident, understanding and responses to montane risks in the Snowy Mountains in NSW. The study shows, as might be expected, that visitors and residents will likely behave measurably different when confronted with montane natural hazard risks. The study models a new method of measuring differences in visitor and resident risk awareness that transforms into different measures of behaviour for application to natural hazard risk assessment models.In the conclusion, the studies are synthesised into a mathematically robust, three domain matrix model where: natural hazard risk = likelihood * consequences * behaviour.
Author: Wayne Hart Publisher: ISBN: Category : Alpine Fault (N.Z.) Languages : en Pages : 317
Book Description
This thesis will inform effective decision making in a natural disaster environment by combining positivist research data fully describing past disaster events, constructed into models that may assist in forecasting outcomes of future disaster events.Transformation ModellingTypically, a vast amount of situational data from a particular natural disaster is collected and stored during the time band of the event. It is collected by participants such as emergency responders, government agencies and researchers.The consequences of most natural disasters are the outputs arising from multiple inputs to a natural and anthropological system that are related through complex relationships. In this study these inputs, outputs and relationships are used to create transformation models. This study provides an original approach to physical data and information management, building initial representation models, and creating transformation models to assist decision making,The thesis introduces a new dimensionless parameter that models relative human behaviour during pre-event and event time bands when potentially; behavioural responses are shown to affect the forecast outcomes based on measured situational data.The internationally standardised tool for managing a risk or hazard is a two dimensional matrix of historical event likelihood, and the magnitude of consequences. Extending the traditional two-dimensional matrix to a three-dimensional matrix that includes a participant behavioural parameter is shown to inform more informative forecasting of disaster outcomes.The StudyThe study involves a research programme of one foundation study and three situational studies in montane environments that introduce new model approaches to risk management. The essential element of building this model is the use of a well posed, problem building principles to enable the creation of a structurally robust and solvable mathematical model.The foundation study researches the historical development of data modelling and finds a structured set of seven archetypal forms of models from a catalogue of 2968 general models. These archetypal forms of models are applied to three different situational studies. The first situational study investigates the Gutenberg-Richter Equation as a reliable model for forecasting the likelihood of long-range seismic trends in the Snowy Mountain Region and the overlayed effects of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) amongst the 52 water dams in the greater Snowy Mountains Region. The study uses transformation models, to show how traditional investigations have over-reported the frequency and magnitude of RIS in this region. This new modelling approach provides a much improved RIS evaluation criteria, as well a surprising finding that reservoirs significantly reduce the risk of serious damage and harm from seismic events when they do, occasionally, occur.The second situational study looks at the second major earthquake in the Canterbury, New Zealand sequence of 2010-11. This second of four strong and major earthquakes caused massive damage, 185 fatalities, and 2,000 moderate to serious injuries, mostly in the city of Christchurch. This study takes a new approach to the transformation modelling of damage using the attenuation of seismic energy to develop a new quantitative model called here the Specific Surface Energy (SSE). This new mathematical model now provides a quantitative definition based on measured seismic data for the historic Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale of seismic intensity. The study identifies several new seismic intensity anomalies that show significant geological features beyond the well-known Bexley liquefaction anomaly may lead to very different risks of damage and consequences. These outcomes may have significant consequences implications for the next major event on the NZ Alpine Fault.The third situational study develops a new approach to studying and forecasting human behaviour in montane natural hazard situations by investigating recreational visitor and resident, understanding and responses to montane risks in the Snowy Mountains in NSW. The study shows, as might be expected, that visitors and residents will likely behave measurably different when confronted with montane natural hazard risks. The study models a new method of measuring differences in visitor and resident risk awareness that transforms into different measures of behaviour for application to natural hazard risk assessment models.In the conclusion, the studies are synthesised into a mathematically robust, three domain matrix model where: natural hazard risk = likelihood * consequences * behaviour.
Author: Shreeda Maskey Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 0203026829 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 184
Book Description
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
Author: Yasuhide Okuyama Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540247874 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 324
Book Description
This volume is dedicated to the memory of Barclay G. Jones, Professor of City and Regional Planning and Regional Science at Cornell University. Over a decade ago, Barclay took on a fledgling area of study - economic modeling of disasters - and nurtured its early development. He served as the social science program director at the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER), a university consortium sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency of the United States. In this capacity, Barclay shepherded and attracted a number of regional scientists to the study of disasters. He organized a conference, held in the ill-fated World Trade Center in September 1995, on "The Economic Consequences of Earthquakes: Preparing for the Unexpected. " He persistently advocated the importance of social science research in an establishment dominated by less-than-sympathetic natural scientists and engineers. In 1993, Barclay organized the first of a series of sessions on "Measuring Regional Economic Effects of Unscheduled Events" at the North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International (RSAI). This unusual nomenclature brought attention to the challenge that disasters -largely unanticipated, often sudden, and always disorderly - pose to the regional science modeling tradition. The sessions provided an annual forum for a growing coalition of researchers, where previously the literature had been fragmentary, scattered, and episodic. Since Barclay's unexpected passing in 1997, we have continued this effort in his tradition.
Author: Patricia Grossi Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 0387231293 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 256
Book Description
Based on the research that has been conducted at Wharton Risk Management Center over the past five years on catastrophic risk. Covers a hot topic in the light of recent terroristic activities and nature catastrophes. Develops risk management strategies for reducing and spreading the losses from future disasters. Provides glossary of definitions and terms used throughout the book.
Author: Karin Riley Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119028094 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 728
Book Description
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Author: Ann Bostrom Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540711589 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 339
Book Description
The papers in this volume integrate results from current research efforts in earthquake engineering with research from the larger risk assessment community. The authors include risk and hazard researchers from the major U.S. hazard and earthquake centers. The volume lays out a road map for future developments in risk modeling and decision support, and positions earthquake engineering research within the family of risk analysis tools and techniques.
Author: Darius Bartlett Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1351681222 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 397
Book Description
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 has identified four priority areas for Disaster Risk Reduction: understanding disaster risk; strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response; and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Although tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in understanding the workings of the Earth systems and, in particular, its impacts on and responses to human actions, there remains a continuing and pressing need for knowledge that will allow society to simultaneously reduce exposure to global environmental hazards, while also meeting economic development goals. Exploring Natural Hazards: A Case Study Approach, contributes to the knowledge showcasing advanced practices for the monitoring of natural hazards. Through each case study, the book examines mainly hazards arising from processes within the hydrosphere and atmosphere, triggered or exacerbated by inputs to and transfers of energy between environmental components. It discusses the causes of these phenomena, and ways in which improved policy making, sometimes coupled with the application of appropriate modern technologies, can help to reduce people’s exposure to harm. Discussing challenges, lessons learned and recommendations, this book provides a snapshot of issues related to tropical cyclones and typhoons, desertification, floods, lightning as a hazard and the need for alert systems. It is a valuable resource for practitioners and professionals alike, for researchers, students and others who work at the intersection between environmental hazards, sustainable development and social justice.
Author: Milan Gocić Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030393917 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 243
Book Description
This book summarizes the research being pursued as part of the Erasmus+ CBHE KA2 project entitled "Development of master curricula for natural disasters risk management in Western Balkan countries” (NatRisk), which aims to educate experts on the prevention and management of natural disasters in the Western Balkan region in line with national and EU policies. The project has successfully developed and implemented master curricula and educational training in the field of natural disasters risk management, and a methodology for the identification and prevention of natural disasters. Consisting of 11 chapters, the book analyzes and discusses topics such as risk assessment tools and quality methods, the different approaches for civil-military collaboration, natural disasters risk management in Bosnia and Herzegovina, leadership models for managing crises resulting from natural disasters, natural disasters in industrial areas, natural risk management in geotechnics, flood risk modeling, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference models for flood prediction, collapse prediction of masonry arches, an algorithm for fire truck dispatch in emergency situations, and processing drought data in a GIS environment.
Author: Debarati Guha-Sapir Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0199841934 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 341
Book Description
This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.
Author: John Pine Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1420070401 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 314
Book Description
Emphasizes Resilient Policies, Rather Than Rigid PhilosophyEconomic and environmental consequences of natural and man-made disasters have grown exponentially during the past few decades. Whether from hurricanes, chemical spills, terrorist incidents, or other catastrophes, the negative impacts can often be felt on a global scale. Natural Hazards Ana