A Primer to Causal Reasoning About a Complex World PDF Download

Author: Lars-Göran Johansson
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031591356
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 149

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Author: Lars-Göran Johansson
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783031591341
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This open access book is about causal thinking and the use of causal language, with a focus on introducing philosophical ideas about causation to students and researchers of Social-Ecological Systems (SES). It takes a systematic approach to three central topics: the meanings of different causal expressions, sufficiency of evidence for inferences from observations to causal relations, and how to handle the complexity of causal relations in social-ecological systems. Consequently, the book is divided into three parts. In the first part the authors analyse and discuss the use of causal idiom in ordinary language, and in the second part they scrutinise the use of causal concepts and causal inference in science. Finally, the authors discuss causal reasoning about social-ecological systems in multi- and interdisciplinary contexts. This book provides an analysis of the concept of causation useful in the empirical sciences, where causal notions and idioms often are used without sufficient reflection. Empirical sciences often use causal idiom drawn from ordinary language, and similarly there is little formalisation of causal language and technical concepts in the humanities and social sciences. This book is a valuable resource for the application of current philosophical discussions about the concept of causation, in particular when applied to the analysis of social-ecological systems, but also when applied to research in the sciences and humanities.

Author: Judea Pearl
Publisher: Basic Books
ISBN: 0465097618
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 432

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Book Description
A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

Author: Judea Pearl
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119186862
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 162

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CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.

Author: Noel Hendrickson
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1442272325
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 357

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Book Description
The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.

Author: Miquel A. Hernan
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781420076165
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 352

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The application of causal inference methods is growing exponentially in fields that deal with observational data. Written by pioneers in the field, this practical book presents an authoritative yet accessible overview of the methods and applications of causal inference. With a wide range of detailed, worked examples using real epidemiologic data as well as software for replicating the analyses, the text provides a thorough introduction to the basics of the theory for non-time-varying treatments and the generalization to complex longitudinal data.

Author: David A. Lagnado
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009063944
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 327

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Book Description
How do we make sense of complex evidence? What are the cognitive principles that allow detectives to solve crimes, and lay people to puzzle out everyday problems? To address these questions, David Lagnado presents a novel perspective on human reasoning. At heart, we are causal thinkers driven to explain the myriad ways in which people behave and interact. We build mental models of the world, enabling us to infer patterns of cause and effect, linking words to deeds, actions to effects, and crimes to evidence. But building models is not enough; we need to evaluate these models against evidence, and we often struggle with this task. We have a knack for explaining, but less skill at evaluating. Fortunately, we can improve our reasoning by reflecting on inferential practices and using formal tools. This book presents a system of rational inference that helps us evaluate our models and make sounder judgments.

Author: Lynette Joubert
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429581149
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 482

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Book Description
The Routledge Handbook of Social Work Practice Research is the first international handbook to focus on practice research for social work. Bringing together leading scholars in the field from Europe, the USA and the Asia Pacific region, it provides an up-to-the minute overview of the latest thinking in practice research whilst also providing practical advice on how to undertake practice research in the field. It is divided into five sections: State of the art Methodologies Pedagogies Applications Expanding the frontiers The range of topics discussed will enhance student development as well as increase the capacity of practitioners to conduct research; develop coordinating and leadership roles; and liaise with multiple stakeholders who will strengthen the context base for practice research. As such, this handbook will be essential reading for all social work students, practitioners and academics as well as those working in other health and social care settings.

Author: Paul Cairney
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108645577
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 149

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Book Description
This provocative Element is on the 'state of the art' of theories that highlight policymaking complexity. It explains complexity in a way that is simple enough to understand and use. The primary audience is policy scholars seeking a single authoritative guide to studies of 'multi-centric policymaking'. It synthesises this literature to build a research agenda on the following questions: 1. How can we best explain the ways in which many policymaking 'centres' interact to produce policy? 2. How should we research multi-centric policymaking? 3. How can we hold policymakers to account in a multi-centric system? 4. How can people engage effectively to influence policy in a multi-centric system? However, by focusing on simple exposition and limiting jargon, Paul Cairney, Tanya Heikkila, Matthew Wood also speak to a far wider audience of practitioners, students, and new researchers seeking a straightforward introduction to policy theory and its practical lessons.

Author: Donella Meadows
Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing
ISBN: 1603581480
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 242

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The classic book on systems thinking—with more than half a million copies sold worldwide! "This is a fabulous book... This book opened my mind and reshaped the way I think about investing."—Forbes "Thinking in Systems is required reading for anyone hoping to run a successful company, community, or country. Learning how to think in systems is now part of change-agent literacy. And this is the best book of its kind."—Hunter Lovins In the years following her role as the lead author of the international bestseller, Limits to Growth—the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet—Donella Meadows remained a pioneer of environmental and social analysis until her untimely death in 2001. Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global. Edited by the Sustainability Institute’s Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world, showing readers how to develop the systems-thinking skills that thought leaders across the globe consider critical for 21st-century life. Some of the biggest problems facing the world—war, hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation—are essentially system failures. They cannot be solved by fixing one piece in isolation from the others, because even seemingly minor details have enormous power to undermine the best efforts of too-narrow thinking. While readers will learn the conceptual tools and methods of systems thinking, the heart of the book is grander than methodology. Donella Meadows was known as much for nurturing positive outcomes as she was for delving into the science behind global dilemmas. She reminds readers to pay attention to what is important, not just what is quantifiable, to stay humble, and to stay a learner. In a world growing ever more complicated, crowded, and interdependent, Thinking in Systems helps readers avoid confusion and helplessness, the first step toward finding proactive and effective solutions.