Author: Stefano SivieroPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Book Description
A Policy-sensible Core-inflation Measure for the Euro Area
Author: Stefano SivieroPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Book Description
Measures of Underlying Inflation in the Euro Area
Author: Emil StavrevPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Book Description
The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors resulting from forecasting of exogenous variables. Also, measures derived using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means, although weaker than GDFM indicators, have good forecasting performance, while indicators by permanent exclusion underperform but provide useful information about short-term dynamics. The forecasting performance of theoretically-founded models that relate monetary aggregates, the output gap, and inflation improves with the time horizon but generally falls short of that of the GDFM. A composite measure of underlying inflation, derived by averaging the statistical indicators and the model-based estimates, improves forecast accuracy by eliminating bias and offers valuable insight about the distribution of risks.
Euro Area Inflation and a New Measure of Core Inflation
Author: Claudio MoranaA First Assessment of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area
Author: Juan-Luis VegaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Book Description
Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. SinclairPublisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
A Persistence-weighted Measure of Core Inflation in the Euro Area
Author: Laurent BilkePublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 27
Book Description
An Evaluation of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area
Author: Juan Luis VegaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Book Description
A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area
Author: Riccardo CristadoroPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Index numbers (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Book Description
Core Inflation in the Euro Area
Author: Fabio C. BaglianoPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Using a common trends model, we estimate a forward-looking core inflation measure for the Euro area based on long-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure may be particularly suitable for the two-pillar monetary policy strategy of the ECB which focuses on medium-term inflation prospects.
Author: Claudio Morana