A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States PDF Download

Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513507567
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17

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Book Description
The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.

Author: Mr.Jiaqian Chen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151352786X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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Book Description
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.

Author: Pierre St.-Amant
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780662260196
Category : Banks and banking
Languages : en
Pages : 62

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Book Description
This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475521049
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 124

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Book Description
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Singapore’s economy continues to perform well despite being hit by a combination of cyclical and structural factors, originating both at home and abroad. Growth moderated from 3.3 percent in 2014 to 2 percent in 2015, and it was 2.2 percent in the first half of 2016. Unemployment has remained low, but net employment generation slowed rapidly in 2015, and headline inflation has stayed below zero since late 2014. Growth is projected to moderate slightly to 1.7 percent in 2016 as the full impact of the global shocks experienced in 2015 is felt, and is expected to recover to 2.2 percent in 2017.

Author: Ali Alichi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475598564
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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Book Description
Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513592424
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 18

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Book Description
The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513574922
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53

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Book Description
Selected Issues

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513575201
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 108

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Book Description
Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate. Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries in the region, especially those with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future, however, will continue to hurt South America's net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. Key risks, including an abrupt tightening of U.S. interest rates or a further slowdown in China, may disproportionately affect Latin America. Chapters in this report examine monetary policy in Latin America, including the region’s exposure to global financial shocks; the role of value chains and regional trade agreements in fostering trade integration; and financial market development in the region.

Author: Mateusz Machaj
Publisher: Lexington Books
ISBN: 1498557554
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 215

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Book Description
Is macroeconomic equilibrium possible under capitalism? How do economic bubbles develop? How does a monetary system influence the market mechanism? Is the return on capital a beneficial feature of the economic system? How does complexity of a capitalist organization influence the market process? Can output under capitalism be easily measured and modeled? Such questions and many others relate to the central concept discussed in the book: heterogeneous structure of production, an envisioned theoretical connection between stages of the capitalist process. An inquiry into the functioning of a capital structure is necessary to understand the workings of the interest rate, savings, aggregate demand, and economic growth. Additionally it provides a theoretical framework to recognize consequences of monetary regimes and interest rate policies performed by the central banks. Capital structure concepts have their place at the center of economic theory as they can provide a broad range of insights into our understanding of the real world. Money, Interest, and the Structure of Production offers key insights in that direction.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513539426
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 62

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Book Description
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the U.S. economy’s momentum in the first quarter of 2015 was sapped by unfavorable weather, a sharp contraction in oil sector investment, and the West Coast port strike. But the underpinnings for a continued expansion remain in place. A solid labor market, accommodative financial conditions, and cheaper oil should support a more dynamic path for the remainder of the year. Despite this, the weaker outturn in the first few months of 2015 will unavoidably pull down 2015 growth. Despite important policy uncertainties, the near-term fiscal outlook has improved, and the federal government deficit is likely to move modestly lower in the current fiscal year.