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Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309285321 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 93
Book Description
The material that sustains the nuclear reactions that produce energy can also be used to make nuclear weapons-and therefore, the development of nuclear energy is one of multiple pathways to proliferation for a non-nuclear weapon state. There is a tension between the development of future nuclear fuel cycles and managing the risk of proliferation as the number of existing and future nuclear energy systems expands throughout the world. As the Department of Energy (DOE) and other parts of the government make decisions about future nuclear fuel cycles, DOE would like to improve proliferation assessments to better inform those decisions. Improving the Assessment of the Proliferation Risk of Nuclear Fuel Cycles considers how the current methods of quantification of proliferation risk are being used and implemented, how other approaches to risk assessment can contribute to improving the utility of assessments for policy and decision makers. The study also seeks to understand the extent to which technical analysis of proliferation risk could be improved for policy makers through research and development.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309285321 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 93
Book Description
The material that sustains the nuclear reactions that produce energy can also be used to make nuclear weapons-and therefore, the development of nuclear energy is one of multiple pathways to proliferation for a non-nuclear weapon state. There is a tension between the development of future nuclear fuel cycles and managing the risk of proliferation as the number of existing and future nuclear energy systems expands throughout the world. As the Department of Energy (DOE) and other parts of the government make decisions about future nuclear fuel cycles, DOE would like to improve proliferation assessments to better inform those decisions. Improving the Assessment of the Proliferation Risk of Nuclear Fuel Cycles considers how the current methods of quantification of proliferation risk are being used and implemented, how other approaches to risk assessment can contribute to improving the utility of assessments for policy and decision makers. The study also seeks to understand the extent to which technical analysis of proliferation risk could be improved for policy makers through research and development.
Author: Lara Marie Pierpoint Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 126
Book Description
A methodology to assess proliferation resistance of advanced nuclear energy systems is investigated. The framework, based on Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), is envisioned for use within early-stage fuel cycle simulations. Method assumptions and structure are explained, and reference technology cases are presented to test the model. Eleven metrics are presented to evaluate the proliferation resistance of once-through, COmbined Non-Fertile and Uranium (CONFU), Mixed-Oxide (MOX), and Advanced Burner Reactor (ABR) fuel cycles. The metrics are roughly categorized in three groups: material characteristics, material handling characteristics, and "inherent" facility characteristics. Each metric is associated with its own utility function, and is weighted according to the proliferation threat of interest. Results suggest that transportation steps are less proliferation-resistant than stationary facilities, and that the ABR fuel cycle employing reactors with low conversion ratios are particularly safe. Nearly all steps of the fuel cycles analyzed are more proliferation resistant to a terrorist threat than to a host nation threat (which has more resources to devote toward proliferation activities). The open light water reactor (LWR) and MOX cycles appear to be the most vulnerable of all cycles analyzed. CONFU proliferation resistance is similar to that of the ABR with conversion ratios 0.5 and 1.0; these are all approximately in between the values ascribed to LWR/MOX (at the low end) and ABR with conversion ratio zero (with the highest proliferation resistance). Preliminary studies were conducted to determine the sensitivity of the results to weighting function structure and values. Several different weighting functions were applied to the utility values calculated for the once-through and CONFU fuel cycles. The tests showed very little change in the ultimate trends and conclusions drawn from each fuel cycle calculation. These conclusions, however, are far from definitive. Limitations of the model are discussed and demonstrated. Recommendations for improving the model are made, including a call for in-depth evaluation of weighting function structures and values, and an examination of quantitative links between assumptions and utilities. Ultimate conclusions include that the numerical values produced by the analysis are not fully and accurately instructive, and analysts should recognize that the greatest gifts of the assessment may come from performing the investigation.
Author: International Atomic Energy Agency Publisher: IAEA ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 198
Book Description
To facilitate the deployment of innovative nuclear systems, different aspects of the infrastructure, technical as well as institutional, are reviewed, and recommendations for changes are made to anticipate the main developments worldwide, such as ongoing globalization.
Author: P. Peterson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 5
Book Description
Enhanced proliferation resistance and physical protection (PR & PP) is one of the technology goals for advanced nuclear concepts, such as Generation IV systems. Under the auspices of the Generation IV International Forum, the Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology of the U.S. DOE, the Office of Nonproliferation Policy of the National Nuclear Security Administration, and participating organizations from six other countries are sponsoring an international working group to develop an evaluation methodology for PR & PP. This methodology will permit an objective PR & PP comparison between alternative nuclear systems (e.g., different reactor types or fuel cycles) and support design optimization to enhance robustness against proliferation, theft and sabotage. The paper summarizes the proposed assessment methodology including the assessment framework, measures used to express the PR & PP characteristics of the system, threat definition, system element and target identification, pathway identification and analysis, and estimation of the measures.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 17
Book Description
The National Nuclear Security Administration is developing methods for nonproliferation assessments to support the development and implementation of U.S. nonproliferation policy. This paper summarizes the key results of that effort. Proliferation resistance is the degree of difficulty that a nuclear material, facility, process, or activity poses to the acquisition of one or more nuclear weapons. A top-level measure of proliferation resistance for a fuel cycle system is developed here from a hierarchy of metrics. At the lowest level, intrinsic and extrinsic barriers to proliferation are defined. These barriers are recommended as a means to characterize the proliferation characteristics of a fuel cycle. Because of the complexity of nonproliferation assessments, the problem is decomposed into: metrics to be computed, barriers to proliferation, and a finite set of threats. The spectrum of potential threats of nuclear proliferation is complex and ranges from small terrorist cells to industrialized countries with advanced nuclear fuel cycles. Two general categories of methods have historically been used for nonproliferation assessments: attribute analysis and scenario analysis. In the former, attributes of the systems being evaluated (often fuel cycle systems) are identified that affect their proliferation potential. For a particular system under consideration, the attributes are weighted subjectively. In scenario analysis, hypothesized scenarios of pathways to proliferation are examined. The analyst models the process undertaken by the proliferant to overcome barriers to proliferation and estimates the likelihood of success in achieving a proliferation objective. An attribute analysis approach should be used at the conceptual design level in the selection of fuel cycles that will receive significant investment for development. In the development of a detailed facility design, a scenario approach should be undertaken to reduce the potential for design vulnerabilities. While, there are distinctive elements in each approach, an analysis could be performed that utilizes aspects of each approach.
Author: International Atomic Energy Agency Publisher: ISBN: 9789201126085 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Describes the rationale and vision for the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The publication identifies the basic principles that nuclear energy systems must satisfy to fulfil their promise of meeting growing global energy demands.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The proliferation resistance attributes or ''barriers'' developed by the Technology Opportunities to improve the Proliferation resistance of nuclear power Systems (TOPS) task force of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee (NERAC) provides a framework for the qualitative evaluation of the proliferation resistance of various candidate nuclear fuel cycles. This report summarizes such a qualitative assessment performed for ten current and proposed civilian nuclear fuel cycles.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
Robust and reliable quantitative proliferation assessment tools have the potential to contribute significantly to a strengthened nonproliferation regime and to the future deployment of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Efforts to quantify proliferation resistance have thus far met with limited success due to the inherent subjectivity of the problem and interdependencies between attributes that lead to proliferation resistance. We suggest that these limitations flow substantially from weaknesses in the foundations of existing methodologies--the initial data inputs. In most existing methodologies, little consideration has been given to the utilization of varying types of inputs--particularly the mixing of subjective and objective data--or to identifying, understanding, and untangling relationships and dependencies between inputs. To address these concerns, a model set of inputs is suggested that could potentially be employed in multiple approaches. We present an input classification scheme and the initial results of testing for relationships between these inputs. We will discuss how classifying and testing the relationship between these inputs can help strengthen tools to assess the proliferation risk of nuclear fuel cycle processes, systems, and facilities.
Author: David Ballin Smith Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
The proliferation resistance of a reprocessing facility can be improved by using a novel detection system that utilizes the nuclear resonance fluorescence (NRF) phenomenon to determine the isotopic composition of materials flowing through the plant. In an aqueous reprocessing facility, the waste stream was identified as a weak point for proliferation resistance. By identifying the isotopic composition of the waste stream and monitoring levels of plutonium and uranium, greater accountancy can be maintained. After the detection system was designed, a probabilistic risk assessment method was used to evaluate the added proliferation resistance afforded by the NRF detection system and the overall proliferation resistance of the reprocessing facility to a diversion of a small quantity of material from the waste stream by two individuals. The overall probability of success for a proliferator to divert materials from a reprocessing facility utilizing an NRF detection system is 8.73* 10-5. This is a decrease, from 3.39* 104, over the probability of success for the proliferator if the NRF detection system is not present. This decrease in proliferator success probability demonstrates and increased proliferation resistance of the reprocessing facility. The NRF detection system is shown to increase the proliferation resistance of the reprocessing facility.
Author: National Research Council
Author: National Research Council
Author: Steven Eugene Skutnik
Author: Lara Marie Pierpoint
Author: International Atomic Energy Agency
Author: P. Peterson
Author: 
Author: International Atomic Energy Agency
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Author: 
Author: David Ballin Smith