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Author: Mauricio Mayorga-Martinez Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The main objective of this research is to collect some empirical evidence on the relationship between monetary and real phenomena in the short and long run as well as the possible asymmetric effects of monetary policy. Among the factors that contribute to the asymmetry are changes in expectations, credit restrictions, and price stickiness. For Costa Rica, monetary asymmetry was intended to be captured through the use of vector autoregressions (VARs) applied to the aggregate M1 and two-stage least squares applied to the interest rates. For the former case, there is no significant evidence of a relationship of short-run movements of M1 on real growth and employment. There exists, however, some indication of an impact of changes in M1 upon the interest rates. Regarding the effect of changes, there is an asymmetric impact upon real activity when a two-period lag is used. Regarding monetary policy, these results imply the following: Monetary shocks are an important source of pressure on the aggregate demand; monetary policy may contribute to economic growth through smoothing the impact of monetary shocks; interest rates may become leading indicators of price variations; and finally, pressure groups may be interested in looking for reductions of interest rates. As a conclusion, the research points out the absences of the non-neutrality hypothesis. Variations of M1 exert pressures on real activity through time.
Author: Mauricio Mayorga-Martinez Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The main objective of this research is to collect some empirical evidence on the relationship between monetary and real phenomena in the short and long run as well as the possible asymmetric effects of monetary policy. Among the factors that contribute to the asymmetry are changes in expectations, credit restrictions, and price stickiness. For Costa Rica, monetary asymmetry was intended to be captured through the use of vector autoregressions (VARs) applied to the aggregate M1 and two-stage least squares applied to the interest rates. For the former case, there is no significant evidence of a relationship of short-run movements of M1 on real growth and employment. There exists, however, some indication of an impact of changes in M1 upon the interest rates. Regarding the effect of changes, there is an asymmetric impact upon real activity when a two-period lag is used. Regarding monetary policy, these results imply the following: Monetary shocks are an important source of pressure on the aggregate demand; monetary policy may contribute to economic growth through smoothing the impact of monetary shocks; interest rates may become leading indicators of price variations; and finally, pressure groups may be interested in looking for reductions of interest rates. As a conclusion, the research points out the absences of the non-neutrality hypothesis. Variations of M1 exert pressures on real activity through time.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513536990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513573691 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline.
Author: Charl Jooste Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455225053 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating the question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (OLS, VAR, TAR, GMM, State-Space modelling and VECM). The paper finds that since 1946 the South African government has ran a sustainable fiscal policy, by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, the paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/GDP ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.
Author: Mr.Douglas Laxton Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.
Author: El Bachir Boukherouaa Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1589063953 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Author: World Bank Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464814414 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 241
Book Description
Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1589068068 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 252
Book Description
This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.
Author: Mauricio Mayorga-Martinez
Author: Mauricio Mayorga-Martinez
Author: 
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Charl Jooste
Author: Mr.Douglas Laxton
Author: El Bachir Boukherouaa
Author: World Bank
Author: David Archer
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.