A Framework for Extracting the Probability of Default from Stock Option Prices PDF Download

Author: Azusa Takeyama
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Default (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Author: Bo-Young Chang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages : 19

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"In this paper, we present a novel method to extract the risk-neutral probability of default of a firm from American put option prices. Building on the idea of a default corridor proposed in Carr and Wu (2011), we derive a parsimonious closed-form formula for American put option prices from which the probability of default can be inferred. The proposed method is easy to implement and helps overcome the main limitation of the method used in Carr and Wu (2011), which relies on the price of one deep-out-of-the-money put option. Our empirical results are based on seven large U.S. firms for the period 2002 to 2010. These results show that, in some cases, the option-implied probability of default can provide a more accurate estimate of default probability, compared to the estimates implied from credit default swap spreads"--Abstract.

Author: Christian Capuano
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Default (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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We present a framework to derive the probability of default implied by the price of equity options. The framework does not require any strong statistical assumption, and provide results that are informative on the expected developments of balance sheet variables, such as assets, equity and leverage, and on the Greek letters (delta, gamma, and vega). We show how to extend the framework by using information from the price of zero-coupon bond and CDS-spreads. In the episode of the collapse of Bear Stearns, option-iPoD was able to early signal market sentiment.

Author: Bo Young Chang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20

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There is a close link between prices of equity options and the probability of default of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, the standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the probability of default implicit in option prices. We introduce a simple method to detect stocks with positive expected equity recovery by examining option prices, and propose a method to extract the probability of default from option prices in the presence of positive expected equity recovery. Our empirical results based on six large financial institutions in the US during the 2007-2009 crisis show that assuming zero recovery leads to significant mispricing of options and misestimation of implied probability of default.

Author: Bo Young Chang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business failures
Languages : en
Pages : 21

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"There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of afirm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. We introduce a simple method to detect stocks with positive expected equity recovery by examining option prices and propose a method to extract the default probability from option prices that allows for positive equity recovery. We demonstrate possible applications of our methodology with examples that include large financial institutions in the United States during the 2007–09 subprime crisis."--Abstract, page ii.

Author: Liuren Wu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43

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We propose a dynamically consistent framework that allows joint valuation and estimation of stock options and credit default swaps written on the same reference company. We model default as controlled by a Poisson process with a stochastic default arrival rate. When default occurs, the stock price drops to zero. Prior to default, the stock price follows a continuous process with stochastic volatility. The instantaneous default rate and instantaneous diffusion variance rate follow a bivariate continuous Markov process, with its dynamics specified to capture the empirical evidence on stock option prices and credit default swap spreads. Under this joint specification, we derive tractable pricing solutions for stock options and credit default swaps. We estimate the joint dynamics using stock option prices and credit default swap spreads for four of the most actively traded reference companies. The estimation highlights the interaction between market risk (diffusion variance) and credit risk (default arrival) in pricing stock options and credit default swaps. While the credit risk factor dominates credit spreads at long maturities, the stock return volatility also enters credit spreads at short maturities due to positive co-movements between the diffusion variance rate and the default arrival rate. Furthermore, while the diffusion variance rate influences the implied volatility uniformly across moneyness, the impact of the credit risk factor becomes much larger on options at lower strikes. The impact of the credit risk factor on stock options also increases with option maturity. For options maturing in six months, the contribution of the credit risk factor to option pricing is comparable in magnitude to the contribution of the diffusion variance rate.

Author: Jennifer S. Conrad
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56

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We propose a novel method of estimating default probabilities using equity option data. The resulting default probabilities are highly correlated with estimates of default probabilities extracted from CDS spreads, which assume constant recovery rates. Additionally, the option implied default probabilities are higher in bad economic times and for firms with poorer credit ratings and financial positions. An inferred recovery rate, after controlling for liquidity effects, is also related to underlying business and firm conditions, varies across sectors and predicts subsequent equity returns.

Author: Mathias Schmidt
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319459708
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 125

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This book introduces the “strike of default” (SOD) benchmark concept. The author determines the SOD through cross-sectional pricing between the credit market and the option market, considering the same underlying. The idea of the SOD is to combine the implied probability of default from both markets to get a time-depending share price, at which the markets believe the underlying will default. By means of credit default swaps (CDS) and option pricing methods, the SOD is determined for any exchange-listed company, where option and CDS market data are available.

Author: Donald R. Van Deventer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118177320
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 502

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An in-depth look at financial risk management Advanced Financial Risk Management integrates interest rate risk, credit risk, foreign exchange risk, and capital allocation using a consistent risk management approach. It explains, in detailed, yet understandable terms, the analytics of these issues from A to Z. Written by experienced risk managers, this book bridges the gap between the idealized assumptions used for valuation and the realities that must be reflected in management actions. It covers everything from the basics of present value, forward rates, and interest rate compounding to the wide variety of alternative term structure models. Donald R. Van Deventer (Hawaii) founded the Kamakura Corporation in April 1990 and is currently President. In 2003, he was voted into the Risk Hall of Fame for having made a profound contribution to the field of risk management. Kenji Imai (Hawaii) heads Software Development for Kamakura and participates in selected Japan-related financial advisory assignments. Mark Mesler (Hawaii) heads the information production for Kamakura Risk Information Services.

Author: Dominique Y. Dupont
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Asset allocation
Languages : en
Pages : 32

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