A dynamic simulation model of disequilibrium in the housing market PDF Download

Author: J. W. Weibull
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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Author: Jörgen W. Weibull
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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Author: Zhong Jin
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 176

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Abstract: In this dissertation, a new simulated maximum likelihood estimation method for dynamic disequilibrium panel data model is proposed. Disequilibrium is specified as a situation where the observed quantity equals the minimum of the quantities demanded and supplied, whereas in equilibrium prices always clear the market. The new method uses simulation to handle the multiple integrals in the likelihood function. I used a Markov structure in which the demand and supply equations depend on their own lagged latent-variables to reduce the computational complexity in the simulation. The new method is the first one designed for dynamic disequilibrium panel data models with unknown sample separation. I also apply the proposed method to the regional panel data on U.S. housing markets. In contrast to previous empirical studies, I conduct an analysis of housing demand and supply that controls for heterogeneity and the serial correlation of the regional housing markets. Using two different set of data, I found that price and income both have significant impacts on the quantity of houses demanded, while price and construction costs have significant negative impacts on quantity of houses demanded. Estimates of disequilibrium models with the Case-Schiller index used as price suggest that most regions experienced excess demand during the sample periods. Finally, a Hausman-type test is employed to ensure that the estimated parameter values correspond to global maximums of the likelihood functions.

Author: Jeffrey E. Zabel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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While the hedonic property value model and recently developed computable general equilibrium urban models assume the housing market is in equilibrium, recent years have witnessed extreme circumstances such as large changes in housing prices, high levels of mortgage default, and high levels of foreclosure that bring into question this assumption. This highlights the need for a better understanding of the dynamics of the housing market and the mechanisms that drive and sustain periods of disequilibrium. In this analysis, I develop and estimate a dynamic model of the housing market where vacancies naturally arise as the error correction mechanism.I estimate this model using annual U.S. panel data at the MSA level for 1990-2011. The results show that when there is excess demand, prices rise when vacancies fall but prices do not fall when there is excess supply and vacancies rise. This is consistent with the belief that prices are sticky downwards and hence prolong housing downturns. On the other hand, when there is excess supply, there is a relatively stronger decline in new housing in response to a rise in vacancies and much less of a new housing reaction when there is excess demand and vacancies fall. Furthermore, when I allow for a structural shift in the housing market brought on by the Great Recession (2006-2011), I find that the housing market became more responsive on both sides - excess supply and demand - during this period.

Author: Jörgen W. Weibull
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 62

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Author: C S Bertuglia
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134695268
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 431

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This edited collection, first published in 1987, provides a comparative analysis of different approaches to urban modelling, and lays the foundations for the possibility of integration and a more unified field. The first part contextualises the development of the field of urban systems modelling, focusing on the variety of approaches and possible implications of this on the future of research and methodology. Next, the editors consider economic and ‘non-economic’ approaches, followed by an analysis of spatial-interaction-based approaches. Providing an overview to the field and research literature, the overarching argument is that there should be an integrated methodological approach to urban system modelling.

Author: Hanna Augustyniak
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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This paper presents a simple disequilibrium model in the primary housing market, calibrated to the Warsaw market. Our aim is to point out that the primary housing market, due to the long construction process is always in disequilibrium, which has important policy implications. We discuss the last housing cycle and show how a combination of slight demand shocks with short-term rigid supply leads to strong fluctuations of house prices and new construction. The primary market can create a significant distress to the economy, because when house prices rise, this sector attracts capital and workers and is able to generate excessive supply, which finally can lead to the burst of the price bubble. The cyclical character is a permanent feature of the property market and can be explained by the inelasticity of supply. Market participants form price and demand expectations based on past observations. This causes frequent cycles that, under specific conditions, can lead to economic crises. We believe that the model describes the reality of the primary housing market better than equilibrium models do, so it can be useful for central banks and financial supervision institutions in the analysis of the impact of fiscal and monetary policy and regulations on the real estate market.

Author: Haixin Hu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 186

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Abstract: This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part studies the sample selection and spatial models of housing price index using transaction data on detached single-family houses of two California metropolitan areas from 1990 through 2008. House prices are often spatially correlated due to shared amenities, or when the properties are viewed as close substitutes in a housing submarket. There have been many studies that address spatial correlation in the context of housing markets. However, none has used spatial models to construct housing price indexes at zip code level for the entire time period analyzed in this dissertation to the best of my knowledge. In this paper, I study a first-order autoregressive spatial model with four different weighing matrix schemes. Four sets of housing price indexes are constructed accordingly. Gatzlaff and Haurin (1997, 1998) study the sample selection problem in housing index by using Heckman's two-step method. This method, however, is generally inefficient and can cause multicollinearity problem. Also, it requires data on unsold houses in order to carry out the first-step probit regression. Maximum likelihood (ML) method can be used to estimate a truncated incidental model which allows one to correct for sample selection based on transaction data only. However, convergence problem is very prevalent in practice. In this paper I adopt Lewbel's (2007) sample selection correction method which does not require one to model or estimate the selection model, except for some very general assumptions. I then extend this method to correct for spatial correlation. In the second part, I analyze the U.S. gasoline market with a disequilibrium model that allows lagged-latent variables, endogenous prices, and panel data with fixed effects. Most existing studies (see the survey of Espey, 1998, Energy Economics) of the gasoline market assume equilibrium. In practice, however, prices do not always adjust fast enough to clear the market. Equilibrium assumptions greatly simplify statistical inference, but are very restrictive and can produce conflicting estimates. For example, econometric models of markets that assume equilibrium often produce more elastic demand price elasticity than their disequilibrium counterparts (Holt and Johnson, 1989, Review of Economics and Statistics, Oczkowski, 1998, Economics Letters). The few studies that allow disequilibrium, however, have been limited to macroeconomic time-series data without lagged-latent variables. While time series data allows one to investigate national trends, it cannot be used to identify and analyze regional differences and the role of local markets. Exclusion of the lagged-latent variables is also undesirable because such variables capture adjustment costs and inter-temporal spillovers. Simulation methods offer tractable solutions to dynamic and panel data disequilibrium models (Lee, 1997, Journal of Econometrics), but assume normally distributed errors. This paper compares estimates of price/income elasticity and excess supply/demand across time periods, regions, and model specifications, using both equilibrium and disequilibrium methods. In the equilibrium model, I compare the within group estimator with Anderson and Hsiao's first-difference 2SLS estimator. In the disequilibrium model, I extend Amemiya's 2SLS by using Newey's efficient estimator with optimal instruments.

Author: Yuzhe Wu
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811008558
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1311

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These conference proceedings offer an outstanding resource for academics and professionals, sharing essential findings on the latest developments in real estate and construction management. The subject is “Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate” in the context of new-type urbanization. The Chinese Research Institute of Construction Management (CRIOCM), working in close collaboration with Zhejiang University, organized CRIOCM2015, the 20th International Symposium. Written by academics and professionals from all over the world, these proceedings discuss the latest achievements, research outputs and advances between frontier disciplines in the field of construction management and real estate. They cover a wide range of topics, including new-type urbanization, land development and land use, urban development and management, the real estate market and housing policies. The discussions will provide an important reference source on the implementation of new-type urbanization in China and abroad.

Author: J. Rouwendal
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400924682
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 326

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It is generally agreed that food, clothing and shelter are the three basic material needs of all people. A simple test for the successfulness of any economic system may therefore be the extent to which it succeeds in providing the population with these commodities. One would conjecture that in the countries that are generally considered as highly developed there would be no problems at all with their availability. And although this conjecture is to a large extent, confirmed by the evidence, it is nevertheless surprising that in western economies with the high per capita incomes housing is still an important object for public concern. Food and clothing are abundantly available in these countries, but the provision of housing is often an object of serious policy concern. To mention one striking example : in the Netherlands there still exist official figures that mention housing shortages of ten thousends of dwellings. This state of affairs is not mentioned here to motivate an exaggerated view on housing problems in Western countries. The situation in the Netherlands and comparable countries is indeed much better than that in underdeveloped countries and a comparison with developing countries would presumably show figures which are comparable to those for food or clothing. The point I want to make is that even in highly developed market economies where the availability of food and clothing is quite satisfactory, the availability of dwellings often is not.