A Deep Learning Approach for Real-time Crash Risk Prediction at Urban Arterials PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download A Deep Learning Approach for Real-time Crash Risk Prediction at Urban Arterials PDF full book. Access full book title A Deep Learning Approach for Real-time Crash Risk Prediction at Urban Arterials by Pei Li. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Pei Li Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
Real-time crash risk prediction aims to predict the crash probabilities within a short time period, it is expected to play a crucial role in the advanced traffic management system. However, most of the existing studies only focused on freeways rather than urban arterials because of the complicated traffic environment of the arterials. This thesis proposes a long short-term memory convolutional neural network (LSTM-CNN) to predict the real-time crash risk at arterials. The advantage of this model is it can benefit from both LSTM and CNN. Specifically, LSTM captures the long-term dependency of the data while CNN extracts the time-invariant features. Four urban arterials in Orlando, FL are selected to conduct a case study. Different types of data are utilized to predict the crash risk, including traffic data, signal timing data, and weather data. Various data preparation techniques are applied also. In addition, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) is used for oversampling the crash cases to address the data imbalance issue. The LSTM-CNN is fine-tuned on the training data and validated on the test data via different metrics. In the end, five other benchmarks models are also developed for model comparison, including Bayesian Logistics Regression, XGBoost, LSTM, CNN, and Sequential LSTM-CNN. Experimental results suggest that the proposed LSTM-CNN outperforms others in terms of Area Under the Curve (AUC) value, sensitivity, and false alarm rate. The findings of this thesis indicate the promising performance of using LSTM-CNN to predict real-time crash risk at arterials.
Author: Pei Li Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
Real-time crash risk prediction aims to predict the crash probabilities within a short time period, it is expected to play a crucial role in the advanced traffic management system. However, most of the existing studies only focused on freeways rather than urban arterials because of the complicated traffic environment of the arterials. This thesis proposes a long short-term memory convolutional neural network (LSTM-CNN) to predict the real-time crash risk at arterials. The advantage of this model is it can benefit from both LSTM and CNN. Specifically, LSTM captures the long-term dependency of the data while CNN extracts the time-invariant features. Four urban arterials in Orlando, FL are selected to conduct a case study. Different types of data are utilized to predict the crash risk, including traffic data, signal timing data, and weather data. Various data preparation techniques are applied also. In addition, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) is used for oversampling the crash cases to address the data imbalance issue. The LSTM-CNN is fine-tuned on the training data and validated on the test data via different metrics. In the end, five other benchmarks models are also developed for model comparison, including Bayesian Logistics Regression, XGBoost, LSTM, CNN, and Sequential LSTM-CNN. Experimental results suggest that the proposed LSTM-CNN outperforms others in terms of Area Under the Curve (AUC) value, sensitivity, and false alarm rate. The findings of this thesis indicate the promising performance of using LSTM-CNN to predict real-time crash risk at arterials.
Author: Mirza Ahammad Sharif Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Motor vehicle crashes in the United States continue to be a serious safety concern for state highway agencies, with over 30,000 fatal crashes reported each year. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported in 2016 that vehicle crashes were the eighth leading cause of death globally. Crashes on roadways are rare and random events that occur due to the result of the complex relationship between the driver, vehicle, weather, and roadway. A significant breadth of research has been conducted to predict and understand why crashes occur through spatial and temporal analyses, understanding information about the driver and roadway, and identification of hazardous locations through geographic information system (GIS) applications. Also, previous research studies have investigated the effectiveness of safety devices designed to reduce the number and severity of crashes. Today, data-driven traffic safety studies are becoming an essential aspect of the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of the roadway network. This can only be done with the assistance of state highway agencies collecting and synthesizing historical crash data, roadway geometry data, and environmental data being collected every day at a resolution that will help researchers develop powerful crash prediction tools. The objective of this research study was to predict vehicle crashes in real-time. This exploratory analysis compared three well-known machine learning methods, including logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine. Additionally, another methodology was developed using variables selected from random forest models that were inserted into the support vector machine model. The study review of the literature noted that this study's selected methods were found to be more effective in terms of prediction power. A total of 475 crashes were identified from the selected urban highway network in Kansas City, Kansas. For each of the 475 identified crashes, six no-crash events were collected at the same location. This was necessary so that the predictive models could distinguish a crash-prone traffic operational condition from regular traffic flow conditions. Multiple data sources were fused to create a database including traffic operational data from the KC Scout traffic management center, crash and roadway geometry data from the Kanas Department of Transportation; and weather data from NOAA. Data were downloaded from five separate roadway radar sensors close to the crash location. This enable understanding of the traffic flow along the roadway segment (upstream and downstream) during the crash. Additionally, operational data from each radar sensor were collected in five minutes intervals up to 30 minutes prior to a crash occurring. Although six no-crash events were collected for each crash observation, the ratio of crash and no-crash were then reduced to 1:4 (four non-crash events), and 1:2 (two non-crash events) to investigate possible effects of class imbalance on crash prediction. Also, 60%, 70%, and 80% of the data were selected in training to develop each model. The remaining data were then used for model validation. The data used in training ratios were varied to identify possible effects of training data as it relates to prediction power. Additionally, a second database was developed in which variables were log-transformed to reduce possible skewness in the distribution. Model results showed that the size of the dataset increased the overall accuracy of crash prediction. The dataset with a higher observation count could classify more data accurately. The highest accuracies in all three models were observed using the dataset of a 1:6 ratio (one crash event for six no-crash events). The datasets with1:2 ratio predicted 13% to 18% lower than the 1:6 ratio dataset. However, the sensitivity (true positive prediction) was observed highest for the dataset of a 1:2 ratio. It was found that reducing the response class imbalance; the sensitivity could be increased with the disadvantage of a reduction in overall prediction accuracy. The effects of the split ratio were not significantly different in overall accuracy. However, the sensitivity was found to increase with an increase in training data. The logistic regression model found an average of 30.79% (with a standard deviation of 5.02) accurately. The random forest models predicted an average of 13.36% (with a standard deviation of 9.50) accurately. The support vector machine models predicted an average of 29.35% (with a standard deviation of 7.34) accurately. The hybrid approach of random forest and support vector machine models predicted an average of 29.86% (with a standard deviation of 7.33) accurately. The significant variables found from this study included the variation in speed between the posted speed limit and average roadway traffic speed around the crash location. The variations in speed and vehicle per hour between upstream and downstream traffic of a crash location in the previous five minutes before a crash occurred were found to be significant as well. This study provided an important step in real-time crash prediction and complemented many previous research studies found in the literature review. Although the models investigate were somewhat inconclusive, this study provided an investigation of data, variables, and combinations of variables that have not been investigated previously. Real-time crash prediction is expected to assist with the on-going development of connected and autonomous vehicles as the fleet mix begins to change, and new variables can be collected, and data resolution becomes greater. Real-time crash prediction models will also continue to advance highway safety as metropolitan areas continue to grow, and congestion continues to increase.
Author: Jinghui Yuan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
Above all, comprehensive real-time safety evaluation algorithms were developed for arterials, which would be key components for future real-time safety applications (e.g., real-time crash risk prediction and visualization system) in the context of pro-active traffic management.
Author: Kohei Arai Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3031184610 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 948
Book Description
The seventh Future Technologies Conference 2022 was organized in a hybrid mode. It received a total of 511 submissions from learned scholars, academicians, engineers, scientists and students across many countries. The papers included the wide arena of studies like Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Vision, Ambient Intelligence and Security and their jaw- breaking application to the real world. After a double-blind peer review process 177 submissions have been selected to be included in these proceedings. One of the prominent contributions of this conference is the confluence of distinguished researchers who not only enthralled us by their priceless studies but also paved way for future area of research. The papers provide amicable solutions to many vexing problems across diverse fields. They also are a window to the future world which is completely governed by technology and its multiple applications. We hope that the readers find this volume interesting and inspiring and render their enthusiastic support towards it.
Author: Constantinos Antoniou Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 9780128129708 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Mobility Patterns, Big Data and Transport Analytics provides a guide to the new analytical framework and its relation to big data, focusing on capturing, predicting, visualizing and controlling mobility patterns - a key aspect of transportation modeling. The book features prominent international experts who provide overviews on new analytical frameworks, applications and concepts in mobility analysis and transportation systems. Users will find a detailed, mobility 'structural' analysis and a look at the extensive behavioral characteristics of transport, observability requirements and limitations for realistic transportation applications and transportation systems analysis that are related to complex processes and phenomena. This book bridges the gap between big data, data science, and transportation systems analysis with a study of big data's impact on mobility and an introduction to the tools necessary to apply new techniques. The book covers in detail, mobility 'structural' analysis (and its dynamics), the extensive behavioral characteristics of transport, observability requirements and limitations for realistic transportation applications, and transportation systems analysis related to complex processes and phenomena. The book bridges the gap between big data, data science, and Transportation Systems Analysis with a study of big data's impact on mobility, and an introduction to the tools necessary to apply new techniques.
Author: Tania Banerjee Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000969703 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 194
Book Description
Video Based Machine Learning for Traffic Intersections describes the development of computer vision and machine learning-based applications for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and the challenges encountered during their deployment. This book presents several novel approaches, including a two-stream convolutional network architecture for vehicle detection, tracking, and near-miss detection; an unsupervised approach to detect near-misses in fisheye intersection videos using a deep learning model combined with a camera calibration and spline-based mapping method; and algorithms that utilize video analysis and signal timing data to accurately detect and categorize events based on the phase and type of conflict in pedestrian-vehicle and vehicle-vehicle interactions. The book makes use of a real-time trajectory prediction approach, combined with aligned Google Maps information, to estimate vehicle travel time across multiple intersections. Novel visualization software, designed by the authors to serve traffic practitioners, is used to analyze the efficiency and safety of intersections. The software offers two modes: a streaming mode and a historical mode, both of which are useful to traffic engineers who need to quickly analyze trajectories to better understand traffic behavior at an intersection. Overall, this book presents a comprehensive overview of the application of computer vision and machine learning to solve transportation-related problems. Video Based Machine Learning for Traffic Intersections demonstrates how these techniques can be used to improve safety, efficiency, and traffic flow, as well as identify potential conflicts and issues before they occur. The range of novel approaches and techniques presented offers a glimpse of the exciting possibilities that lie ahead for ITS research and development. Key Features: Describes the development and challenges associated with Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Provides novel visualization software designed to serve traffic practitioners in analyzing the efficiency and safety of an intersection Has the potential to proactively identify potential conflict situations and develop an early warning system for real-time vehicle-vehicle and pedestrian-vehicle conflicts
Author: Nada Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 185
Book Description
On the other hand, aiming to improve road users’ safety on urban arterials, this research proposed an integrated approach to identify the hotspots by developing crash prediction models (Safety Performance Functions) considering context classification. The study utilized big data and compared a wide array of statistical and machine learning models that were developed to estimate reliable non-motorist exposure. The results indicated that XGBoost is the best model to estimate non-motorist exposure at intersections and along the roadway segments. Further, the proposed approach included developing Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) to identify the hotspots for two types of crashes (i.e., vulnerable road users’ crashes at intersections and bike crashes along the road). It was found that the hotspots were more likely to be located near the city of Orlando. Coastal roadways were classified as cold categories regarding bike crashes. Finally, the research investigated the factors contributing to operating speed considering context classifications. The analyses indicated the significant factors that influence operating speed or non-motorist crashes such as average block length, shoulder width, proportion of population below poverty, and number of signalized intersections per mile. It also illustrated the potential speed management countermeasures that significantly influence the operating speed. These countermeasures could have potential influence on roadway safety if implemented. This could help the decision makers to determine the best countermeasures to be implemented along roadway segments for different context classification roads.
Author: Dominique Lord Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing ISBN: 1787148920 Category : Transportation Languages : en Pages : 511
Book Description
This book increases the level of knowledge on road safety contexts, issues and challenges; shares what can currently be done to address the variety of issues; and points to what needs to be done to make further gains in road safety.
Author: Pei Li
Author: Pei Li
Author: Mirza Ahammad Sharif
Author: Jinghui Yuan
Author: Kohei Arai
Author: Constantinos Antoniou
Author: Tania Banerjee
Author: Wuhong Wang
Author: Nada Ahmed Ibrahim Mahmoud
Author: Dominique Lord
Author: Timothy Joseph Likens