A Data-driven Storm Surge Analysis for the U.S. Gulf Coast PDF Download

Author: Harold Francis Needham (III)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: United States. Army. Corps of Engineers
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Storm surges
Languages : en
Pages : 238

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Author: Michael Getachew Tadesse
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Storm surge is the deadliest component of extreme sea levels with one of the highest global death tolls per event. Tide gauges are the primary sources for historical sea-level measurements from which storm surge data is extracted. However, tide gauges are unevenly distributed across the globe, and most records are short in length and have gaps; this creates a challenge to assess long-term trends and perform robust extreme value analysis. This dissertation introduces a data-driven storm surge modeling framework that trains statistical and machine learning models with atmospheric and oceanographic variables. Data-driven models (DDMs) are trained and validated for more than 800 tide gauges globally using datasets that are obtained from tide gauges, satellites, and atmospheric reanalyses. By forcing DDMs with five atmospheric reanalyses, a database of global daily maximum storm surge reconstructions (GSSR, http://gssr.info) is provided for 882 tide gauges covering the 1836-2019 period. The reconstruction datasets provide an opportunity to perform long-term trend analysis and robust extreme value analysis. However, some atmospheric reanalyses have inhomogeneities that translate to surge reconstructions, introducing spurious trends not reflected in observed surges. A Bayesian change point detection method has been applied to identify and remove spurious trends from GSSR surge reconstructions. It is shown in this dissertation, that after the change point analysis, GSSR provides several decades of additional reconstructed surge data in addition to what is already available from sea-level measurements. Utilizing the post-processed surge reconstructions, a long-term trend analysis of storm surge climate has been carried out globally, particularly with respect to the magnitude and frequency of storm surges. Trends are also separately computed for the satellite-era where all five GSSR reconstructions and observed surges overlap. It is shown that the use of ensemble surge reconstructions is advisable, if possible, rather than using a single reconstruction to account for uncertainties stemming from atmospheric reanalyses.

Author: B. R. Bodine
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hurricanes
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Storm surges
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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Author: Naeko Takahashi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finite element method
Languages : en
Pages : 132

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The city of Pascagoula and its coastal areas along the United States Gulf Coast have experienced many catastrophic hurricanes and were devastated by high storm surges caused by Hurricane Katrina (August 23 to 30, 2005). The National Hurricane Center reported high water marks exceeding 6 meters near the port of Pascagoula with a near 10-meter high water mark recorded near the Hurricane Katrina landfall location in Waveland, MS. Although the Pascagoula River is located 105 km east of the landfall location of Hurricane Katrina, the area was devastated by storm surge-induced inundation because of its low elevation. Building on a preliminary finite element mesh for the Pascagoula River, the work presented herein is aimed at incorporating the marsh areas lying adjacent to the Lower Pascagoula and Escatawpa Rivers for the purpose of simulating the inland inundation which occurred during Hurricane Katrina. ADCIRC-2DDI (ADvanced CIRCulation Model for Shelves, Coasts and Estuaries, Two-Dimensional Depth Integrated) is employed as the hydrodynamic circulation code. The simulations performed in this study apply high-resolution winds and pressures over the 7-day period associated with Hurricane Katrina. The high resolution of the meteorological inputs to the problem coupled with the highly detailed description of the adjacent inundation areas will provide an appropriate modeling tool for studying storm surge dynamics within the Pascagoula River. All simulation results discussed herein are directed towards providing for a full accounting of the hydrodynamics within the Pascagoula River in support of ongoing flood/river forecasting efforts. In order to better understand the hydrodynamics within the Pascagoula River when driven by an extreme storm surge event, the following tasks were completed as a part of this study: 1) Develop an inlet-based floodplain DEM (Digital Elevation Model) for the Pascagoula River. The model employs topography up to the 1.5-meter contour extracted from the Southern Louisiana Gulf Coast Mesh (SL15 Mesh) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 2) Incorporate the inlet-based floodplain model into the Western North Atlantic Tidal (WNAT) model domain, which consists of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the entire portion of the North Atlantic Ocean found west of the 60 degree West meridian, in order to more fully account for the storm surge dynamics occurring within the Pascagoula River. This large-scale modeling approach will utilize high-resolution wind and pressure fields associated with Hurricane Katrina, so that storm surge hydrographs (elevation variance) at the open-ocean boundary locations associated with the localized domain can be adequately obtained. 3) Understand the importance of the various meteorological forcings that are attributable to the storm surge dynamics that are setup within the Pascagoula River. Different implementations of the two model domains (large-scale, including the WNAT model domain; localized, with its focus concentrated solely on the Pascagoula River) will involve the application of tides, storm surge hydrographs and meteorological forcing (winds and pressures) in isolation (i.e., as the single forcing mechanism) and collectively (i.e., together in combination). The following conclusions are drawn from the research presented in this thesis: 1) Incorporating the marsh areas into the preliminary in-bank mesh provides for significant improvement in the astronomic tide simulation; 2) the large-scale modeling approach (i.e., the localized floodplain mesh incorporated into the WNAT model domain) is shown to be most adequate towards simulating storm surge dynamics within the Pascagoula River. Further, we demonstrate the utility of the large-scale model domain towards providing storm surge hydrographs for the open-ocean boundary of the localized domain. Only when the localized domain is forced with the storm surge hydrograph (generated by the large-scale model domain) does it most adequately capture the full behavior of the storm surge. Finally, we discover that while the floodplain description up to the 1.5-m contour greatly improves the model response by allowing for the overtopping of the river banks, a true recreation of the water levels caused by Hurricane Katrina will require a floodplain description up to the 5-m contour.

Author: D. Lee Harris
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hurricanes
Languages : en
Pages : 156

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Author: Michael Siek
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 041562102X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 239

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Book Description
Accurate predictions of storm surge are of importance in many coastal areas in the world to avoid and mitigate its destructive impacts. For this purpose the physically-based (process) numerical models are typically utilized. However, in data-rich cases, one may use data-driven methods aiming at reconstructing the internal patterns of the modelled processes and relationships between the observed descriptive variables. This book focuses on data-driven modelling using methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory. First, some fundamentals of physical oceanography, nonlinear dynamics and chaos, computational intelligence and European operational storm surge models are covered. After that a number of improvements in building chaotic models are presented: nonlinear time series analysis, multi-step prediction, phase space dimensionality reduction, techniques dealing with incomplete time series, phase error correction, finding true neighbours, optimization of chaotic model, data assimilation and multi-model ensemble prediction. The major case study is surge prediction in the North Sea, with some tests on a Caribbean Sea case. The modelling results showed that the enhanced predictive chaotic models can serve as an efficient tool for accurate and reliable short and mid-term predictions of storm surges in order to support decision-makers for flood prediction and ship navigation.

Author: Francis P. Ho
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Hurricane Carla
Languages : en
Pages : 122

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Author: Bill Marscher
Publisher: Mercer University Press
ISBN: 9780865548671
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 148

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The Great Sea Island Storm of 1893 details human courage and perseverance in the face of the second most fatal hurricane in US history.