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Author: Collin M. Heller Publisher: ISBN: Category : Decision making Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The research objective of this thesis is to formulate and demonstrate a computational framework for modeling the design decisions of engineers. This framework is intended to be descriptive in nature as opposed to prescriptive or normative; the output of the model represents a plausible result of a designer's decision making process. The framework decomposes the decision into three elements: the problem statement, the designer's beliefs about the alternatives, and the designer's preferences. Multi-attribute utility theory is used to capture designer preferences for multiple objectives under uncertainty. Machine-learning techniques are used to store the designer's knowledge and to make Bayesian inferences regarding the attributes of alternatives. These models are integrated into the framework of a Markov decision process to simulate multiple sequential decisions. The overall framework enables the designer's decision problem to be transformed into an optimization problem statement; the simulated designer selects the alternative with the maximum expected utility. Although utility theory is typically viewed as a normative decision framework, the perspective in this research is that the approach can be used in a descriptive context for modeling rational and non-time critical decisions by engineering designers. This approach is intended to enable the formalisms of utility theory to be used to design human subjects experiments involving engineers in design organizations based on pairwise lotteries and other methods for preference elicitation. The results of these experiments would substantiate the selection of parameters in the model to enable it to be used to diagnose potential problems in engineering design projects. The purpose of the decision-making framework is to enable the development of a design process simulation of an organization involved in the development of a large-scale complex engineered system such as an aircraft or spacecraft. The decision model will allow researchers to determine the broader effects of individual engineering decisions on the aggregate dynamics of the design process and the resulting performance of the designed artifact itself. To illustrate the model's applicability in this context, the framework is demonstrated on three example problems: a one-dimensional decision problem, a multidimensional turbojet design problem, and a variable fidelity analysis problem. Individual utility functions are developed for designers in a requirements-driven design problem and then combined into a multi-attribute utility function. Gaussian process models are used to represent the designer's beliefs about the alternatives, and a custom covariance function is formulated to more accurately represent a designer's uncertainty in beliefs about the design attributes.
Author: Collin M. Heller Publisher: ISBN: Category : Decision making Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The research objective of this thesis is to formulate and demonstrate a computational framework for modeling the design decisions of engineers. This framework is intended to be descriptive in nature as opposed to prescriptive or normative; the output of the model represents a plausible result of a designer's decision making process. The framework decomposes the decision into three elements: the problem statement, the designer's beliefs about the alternatives, and the designer's preferences. Multi-attribute utility theory is used to capture designer preferences for multiple objectives under uncertainty. Machine-learning techniques are used to store the designer's knowledge and to make Bayesian inferences regarding the attributes of alternatives. These models are integrated into the framework of a Markov decision process to simulate multiple sequential decisions. The overall framework enables the designer's decision problem to be transformed into an optimization problem statement; the simulated designer selects the alternative with the maximum expected utility. Although utility theory is typically viewed as a normative decision framework, the perspective in this research is that the approach can be used in a descriptive context for modeling rational and non-time critical decisions by engineering designers. This approach is intended to enable the formalisms of utility theory to be used to design human subjects experiments involving engineers in design organizations based on pairwise lotteries and other methods for preference elicitation. The results of these experiments would substantiate the selection of parameters in the model to enable it to be used to diagnose potential problems in engineering design projects. The purpose of the decision-making framework is to enable the development of a design process simulation of an organization involved in the development of a large-scale complex engineered system such as an aircraft or spacecraft. The decision model will allow researchers to determine the broader effects of individual engineering decisions on the aggregate dynamics of the design process and the resulting performance of the designed artifact itself. To illustrate the model's applicability in this context, the framework is demonstrated on three example problems: a one-dimensional decision problem, a multidimensional turbojet design problem, and a variable fidelity analysis problem. Individual utility functions are developed for designers in a requirements-driven design problem and then combined into a multi-attribute utility function. Gaussian process models are used to represent the designer's beliefs about the alternatives, and a custom covariance function is formulated to more accurately represent a designer's uncertainty in beliefs about the design attributes.
Author: Kemper E. Lewis Publisher: American Society of Mechanical Engineers ISBN: Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 360
Book Description
Whether you are an engineer facing decisions in product design, an instructor or student engaged in course work, or a researcher exploring new options and opportunities, you can turn to Decision Making in Engineering Design for: Foundations and fundamentals of making decisions in product design; Clear examples of effective application of Decision-Based Design; State-of-the-art theory and practice in Decision-Based Design; Thoughtful insights on validation, uncertainty, preferences, distributed design, demand modeling, and other issues; End-of-chapter exercise problems to facilitate learning. With this advanced text, you become current with research results on DBD developed since the inception of The Open Workshop on Decision-Based Design, a project funded by the National Science Foundation.
Author: D. Navinchandra Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1461231140 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 203
Book Description
Exploration and Innovation in Design is one of the first books to present both conceptual and computational models of processes which have the potential to produce innovative results at early stages of design. Discussed here is the concept of exploration where the system, using computational processes, moves outside predefined available decisions. Sections of this volume discuss areas such as design representation and search, exploration and the emergence of new criteria, and precedent-based adaptation. In addition, the author presents the overall architecture of a design system and shows how the pieces fit together into one coherent system. Concluding chapters of the book discuss relationships of work in design to other research efforts, applications, and future research directions in design. The ideas and processes presented in this volume further our understanding of computational models of design, particularly those that are capable of assisting in the production of non-routine designs, and affirm that we are indeed moving toward a science of design.
Author: Weigang, Li Publisher: IGI Global ISBN: 160566801X Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 392
Book Description
"This book disseminates knowledge on modern information technology applications in air transportation useful to professionals, researchers, and academicians"--Provided by publisher.
Author: Mauricio A. Sanchez Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3030179850 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 221
Book Description
This book gathers a collection of the latest research, applications, and proposals, introducing readers to innovations and concepts from diverse environments and systems. As such, it will provide students and professionals alike with not only cutting-edge information, but also new inspirations and potential research directions. Each chapter focuses on a specific aspect of applied decision making, e.g. in complex systems, computational intelligence, security, and ubiquitous computing.
Author: Stuart Berry Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319554174 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 390
Book Description
This interdisciplinary reference and guide provides an introduction to modeling methodologies and models which form the starting point for deriving efficient and effective solution techniques, and presents a series of case studies that demonstrate how heuristic and analytical approaches may be used to solve large and complex problems. Topics and features: introduces the key modeling methods and tools, including heuristic and mathematical programming-based models, and queueing theory and simulation techniques; demonstrates the use of heuristic methods to not only solve complex decision-making problems, but also to derive a simpler solution technique; presents case studies on a broad range of applications that make use of techniques from genetic algorithms and fuzzy logic, tabu search, and queueing theory; reviews examples incorporating system dynamics modeling, cellular automata and agent-based simulations, and the use of big data; supplies expanded descriptions and examples in the appendices.
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262331713 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 350
Book Description
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author: Jeffrey W. Herrmann Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118919335 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 356
Book Description
IIE/Joint Publishers Book of the Year Award 2016! Awarded for ‘an outstanding published book that focuses on a facet of industrial engineering, improves education, or furthers the profession’. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management emphasizes practical issues and examples of decision making with applications in engineering design and management Featuring a blend of theoretical and analytical aspects, this book presents multiple perspectives on decision making to better understand and improve risk management processes and decision-making systems. Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management uniquely presents and discusses three perspectives on decision making: problem solving, the decision-making process, and decision-making systems. The author highlights formal techniques for group decision making and game theory and includes numerical examples to compare and contrast different quantitative techniques. The importance of initially selecting the most appropriate decision-making process is emphasized through practical examples and applications that illustrate a variety of useful processes. Presenting an approach for modeling and improving decision-making systems, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management also features: Theoretically sound and practical tools for decision making under uncertainty, multi-criteria decision making, group decision making, the value of information, and risk management Practical examples from both historical and current events that illustrate both good and bad decision making and risk management processes End-of-chapter exercises for readers to apply specific learning objectives and practice relevant skills A supplementary website with instructional support material, including worked solutions to the exercises, lesson plans, in-class activities, slides, and spreadsheets An excellent textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate students, Engineering Decision Making and Risk Management is appropriate for courses on decision analysis, decision making, and risk management within the fields of engineering design, operations research, business and management science, and industrial and systems engineering. The book is also an ideal reference for academics and practitioners in business and management science, operations research, engineering design, systems engineering, applied mathematics, and statistics.
Author: Cengiz Kahraman Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9814417750 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 1373
Book Description
FLINS, originally an acronym for Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science, is now extended to Computational Intelligence for applied research. The contributions to the 10th of FLINS conference cover state-of-the-art research, development, and technology for computational intelligence systems, both from the foundations and the applications points-of-view.
Author: Collin M. Heller
Author: Collin M. Heller
Author: Kemper E. Lewis
Author: D. Navinchandra
Author: Weigang, Li
Author: Mauricio A. Sanchez
Author: Stuart Berry
Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Author: Jeffrey W. Herrmann
Author: Cengiz Kahraman
Author: Johnny Olayinka