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Author: Roger Cooke Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0195064658 Category : Decision-making Languages : en Pages : 334
Book Description
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Author: Roger Cooke Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 0195064658 Category : Decision-making Languages : en Pages : 334
Book Description
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Author: Tadashi Dohi Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9812773762 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 816
Book Description
The 2006 Asian International Workshop on Advanced Reliability Modeling (AIWARM) is the second symposium in a series of biennial workshops for the dissemination of state-of-art research and the presentation of practice in reliability and maintenance engineering in Asia. It brings together researchers and engineers from not only Asian countries but also all over world to discuss the state of research and practice in dealing with both reliability issues at the system design phase and maintenance issues at the system operation phase. The theme of AIWARM 2006 is OC reliability testing and improvementOCO. The contributions in this volume cover all the main topics in reliability and maintenance engineering, providing an in-depth presentation of theory and practice. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Optimal Burn-In for Minimizing Total Warranty Cost (311 KB). Contents: System and Network Reliability; Optimization in Reliability Engineering; Maintenance; Advanced Warranty Modeling; Software Reliability; Acceleration Testing and Failure Analysis; Statistical Analysis and Reliability Modeling; Stochastic Models; Statistical Quality Control. Readership: Graduate students and researchers and as well as reliability, maintenance and industrial engineers."
Author: Isaac Elishakoff Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1402021313 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 304
Book Description
Have you ever wondered where the safety factors come from? Why is it that deterministic analysis has reached a very sophisticated level, but in the end empirical factors are still needed? Is there a way to select them, rather than assigning them arbitrarily as is often done? This book clearly shows that safety factors are closely related with the reliability of structures, giving yet another demonstration of Albert Einstein's maxim that "It is incomprehensible that Nature is comprehensible". The book shows that the safety factors are much more comprehensible if they are seen in a probabilistic context. Several definitions of the safety factors are given, analytical results on insightful numbers are presented, nonprobabilistic safety factors are shown, as well as their estimates derived by the inequalities of Bienayme, Markov, Chebushev and Camp-Meidell. A special chapter is devoted to important contributions by Japanese experts. This volume will help to critically re-think the issue of safety factors, which can create a false feeling of security. The deterministic paradigm can be enhanced by incorporating probabilistic concepts wisely where they are needed without treating all variables as probabilistic ones. The book shows that there is a need of their integration rather than separation. This book is intended for engineers, graduate students, lecturers and researchers.
Author: Bibudhendu Pati Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 981192225X Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 686
Book Description
This book gathers high-quality research papers presented at the 6th International Conference on Advanced Computing and Intelligent Engineering (ICACIE 2021) organized by Bhubaneswar Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India, during December 23–24, 2021. It includes sections describing technical advances and the latest research in the fields of computing and intelligent engineering. Intended for graduate students and researchers working in the disciplines of computer science and engineering, the proceedings also appeal to researchers in the field of electronics, as they cover hardware technologies and future communication technologies.
Author: Robin A. Sahner Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1461523672 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 408
Book Description
Performance and Reliability Analysis of Computer Systems: An Example-Based Approach Using the SHARPE Software Package provides a variety of probabilistic, discrete-state models used to assess the reliability and performance of computer and communication systems. The models included are combinatorial reliability models (reliability block diagrams, fault trees and reliability graphs), directed, acyclic task precedence graphs, Markov and semi-Markov models (including Markov reward models), product-form queueing networks and generalized stochastic Petri nets. A practical approach to system modeling is followed; all of the examples described are solved and analyzed using the SHARPE tool. In structuring the book, the authors have been careful to provide the reader with a methodological approach to analytical modeling techniques. These techniques are not seen as alternatives but rather as an integral part of a single process of assessment which, by hierarchically combining results from different kinds of models, makes it possible to use state-space methods for those parts of a system that require them and non-state-space methods for the more well-behaved parts of the system. The SHARPE (Symbolic Hierarchical Automated Reliability and Performance Evaluator) package is the `toolchest' that allows the authors to specify stochastic models easily and solve them quickly, adopting model hierarchies and very efficient solution techniques. All the models described in the book are specified and solved using the SHARPE language; its syntax is described and the source code of almost all the examples discussed is provided. Audience: Suitable for use in advanced level courses covering reliability and performance of computer and communications systems and by researchers and practicing engineers whose work involves modeling of system performance and reliability.
Author: Pietro C. Cacciabue Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9781852337056 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 416
Book Description
A guide for anyone who uses Human Factors in system design or safety assessment, this book offers consistent & ready-to-use procedures & methods that can be applied to real-life problems.
Author: Roger Cooke
Author: Roger Cooke
Author: Tadashi Dohi
Author: Isaac Elishakoff
Author: Bibudhendu Pati
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Author: 
Author: 
Author: Robin A. Sahner
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Author: Pietro C. Cacciabue